Reubachi

I didn't say anything about expertise, I do not use LLM for work and have a background in statistics/teaching. Also, none of this is related to tokenization. It's just the way the application layer infers response.

Any inference or probability engine, be it an app or a heuristic mental process, is obviously based on categorizing historical data and literally weighing it's confidence around it to form responses.

Confidence intervals and associated indexes/logic are the foundation for most heuristic data models.

Yes, this is what is user-level marketed as context memory.

Certain models of course force this context memory, some don't, some allow you to toggle it's "trigger level".

For example Anthropic, use haiku for low memory context queries, research. Then Opus/Fable for compiling/analysis/design, which relies on the LLM inference constantly going back into context memory.

Another example is OpenAI/GPT. The "free" tier forces context memory using the "highest available model" per your subscription (or lack thereof), and upon hitting its limit, drops you down to a low context model, and then ultimatley blocking that chat entirely.

(I appreciate this discussion and am not trying to inform you, I'm sure you already know, but typing these things out helps me understand my holes in understanding.)

# of issued leaf certs isn't a great indicator of propagation, user-impact, revenue etc.

1. 59 million of those 60 million could be very short validity, duplicate enrollments from same private key/csr, etc. 2. I'm still not certain that that figure isn't including for example private roots/intermediates they've issued from.

That said they're a low volume (in terms of root/int) provider so I don't think the impact of them exiting will be great.

credulous in the sense that it is an an engineering feat. Caveat, I'm way more a car person than IT person, and dislike Tesla.

Hagerty or some similar channel had a 45m breakdown of the car with a tesla rep, and as a standalone single vehicle that can do what it does, it's a marvel. I really couldn't believe the aero effects and paneling/tightness came from the same company that last year officially "exited the car business" and sold a stainless steel half truck.

That said it's so obviousley a marketing peice/distraction. But I am thinking about the engineers who's saw this as their chance to show that yes, they can design and bring to prototype a car with the fit and finish of a ferrari prototype with the added instanity of a very impractical gas cylinder rocket system.

"LLM" literally converse/compute via statistical inference.

It is given sets of paramaters/data and infers a response based on it's acceptable confidence level. The bottleneck for this is compute power and model/prompt/rails/integrations.

The reason LLM stays consistent/can be somewhat trusted to stay on rails is that it's aware of both it's context/scope and it's confidence about the context.

Anything else would be....original thought and exposition? I guess. You could say that our brains do the same, IE; unconcious statistical analysis leading to inference based on confidence.

It's a positive in the sense that the industry has made it marginally cheaper in time/resources to pay-as-you-go.

It's a positive in the sense that due to these industry changes (computer power going up 20x in cost.), the platforms are offering a way to let us peons play games.

It's a negative in that it's a futher commitment of these vendors to hoarde compute/GPU power from western consumers and chinese LLM vendors. MS will routinely purchase the highest end GPU for sake of keeping this service alive, nevermind their own LLM. Good luck getting one yourself.

I totally agree with you. there's a cost benefit analysis we make when purchasing something and I can imagine the case where I'm ok paying 50c an hour for a remote game.

It's hard though not to see the writing on the wall in regards to "local compute GPU availability". Every single industry even tangentially related to compute power has "silently" moved their bus model to consumption based, despite the consumer base having 0 appetite for that. (We're not engineers/app developers who are forced to use LLM agents, we're trying to pay a service that hosts games.)

I am unsure how a medium that was a failure as a free/subscription model will succeed as a floating pay-as-you-go model.

It's difficult to take Sal seriously these days.

"What is happening with US Sealift command?"

"what has happened to american shipping?"

"Why are american port automations ruining economies?"

"why is "program ___" costing so much?"

Well, Sal. It might just have something to do with the leadership you voted for.

A caveat to the below: the region is still at war.

Oil demand is inflexable when considering the demand has rarely been based around refilling reserves and pricing hasn't been determined by the insurance houses. Strategic reserves are depleted across the globe, china in particular.

Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. For many months there was complete uncertainty about who insures the insurers. So, now these economies need to catch up. (not forgetting, the globe is still "at war" and the messaging is up and down.)

Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode. Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.

I don't see the silliness, maybe you can help me.

CUrrently they're averaging, what, max 3 falcons per week, usually in test configuration?

The partnership scope calls for.....~150 launches per week, delivering payload and returning the module.

Trust me, I love space and pushing the frontier at the cost of US dollars, but that is....so significantly far away.

COnsider the boeing 737-8,9,10 MAX. That program is far, far less grandiose in it's delivery scope, has an ancient legacy OEM that is very familiar with regulated contracts w/ the gov, and they can't deliver a plane within 5 years of the expected contract completion to their premier airline partner.

I can be convinced IE; some transparent internal reporting on project lead's current understandings as the project progresses, but there just isn't any statements from SpaceX/Nasa/USGOV on what we can all see with out eyes.

True, they are clearly top of the entire planet when it comes to succesfull LEO launches.

I can go even further and say I trust they will be the company to deliver, given the decades long historical relationship between US Space Agencies and Vendors.

That said, 2.6 test falcon launches per week, is so, so many orders of magnitude away from "~150 full payload delivery and recovery missions per week".

I struggle to think how anyone with experience in the industry (and eye balls) thinks this is aligning with reality.

This is not a home/consumer GPU discussion.

But in that vein, you are in the same position as the chinese LLM providers. They cannot get hardware to host so they put the problem in the forefront by offering it open.

In a way, Deepseek is championing your cause.

AH, you clearly haven't had the "5 different chargers breaking and begging support to send a different production batch". (And paying for every charger.)

My scanwatch is beautiful, and the battery life is great. But to this day, on my 5th charger, it either charges to full in 20m, or 3 hours. Same charger, same wall outlet. Probably not great for the watches hardware.

Worst product i've ever owned that I feel completely duped on.

It's a hard feeling to explain, when purchasing any "high cost" tech device, I like to think i'm a smart consumer and do my research.

Nope. This company is, for back of a better word, disgusting. Never in my life have I had to maintain a profesional relationship with support agents for sake of: -charger breaking repeatedly -Syncing breaking repeatedlty -BIometrics are completely, completely random and arbitrary compared to other professional devices. -time desync -Completely, baffling missing integrations. (I can't configure a god damn alarm?) -The big one, dynamic paywalling. Since I purchased mine, I have been locked out of the few worthwhile features that the app/device initially offered.

The scanwatch 2 is completely useless as a watch and a health device. It is marginally acceptable as a fashion device.

Yes, completely unbeleivable. I mainly think this because SpaceX has committed said engineers to delivering unfeasable amounts of payload to LEO/ISS, etc. Think on the order of "One succesful launch, delivery, and re-entry/recovery per day".

That is of course very very far away from reality (though, progressing to a feasable program faster than any space observers predicted.)

THat, combined with Elon signaling to investors/market that tesla no longer produces cars.....it's hard to imagine the company splitting their very, very , very over-commited engineers to a flying car. At least, they aren't commiting the point that this will be a consumer-market car, or even a halo car.