A caveat to the below: the region is still at war.
Oil demand is inflexable when considering the demand has rarely been based around refilling reserves and pricing hasn't been determined by the insurance houses. Strategic reserves are depleted across the globe, china in particular.
Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. For many months there was complete uncertainty about who insures the insurers. So, now these economies need to catch up. (not forgetting, the globe is still "at war" and the messaging is up and down.)
Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode.
Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.
Oil demand is inflexable when considering the demand has rarely been based around refilling reserves and pricing hasn't been determined by the insurance houses. Strategic reserves are depleted across the globe, china in particular.
Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. For many months there was complete uncertainty about who insures the insurers. So, now these economies need to catch up. (not forgetting, the globe is still "at war" and the messaging is up and down.)
Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode. Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.