vandemonian

What if instead of infotainment, news coverage was like the weather forecast?

I've made a Trump dashboard, using probabilities from prediction markets...

You can see the latest odds on Trump, including: - winning the NH primary, - appearing on the CO ballot, - going to jail

and more...

This is v1, feedback very welcome!

Based on some feedback I got on twitter, I've added collapsible links to the site. It should feel less info dense now. Would be curious to know what people think!

There are 'real money' prediction markets, where if you bet wrong you lose your money. One of the biggest is called Polymarket

Even on 'play money' markets like Metaculus, a lot of the volume comes from people passionate about forecasting accurately (which is why they do it for imaginary internet points). As you can imagine, someone who makes predictions about geopolitics in a quantitative, falsifiable way for fun is typically pretty clever (myself excluded)

Exactly! Putting proper 'base rates' next to an article, so the reader as the quantitative context.

Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-term historical averages to give a sense of the underlying frequency of an event...

Thank you for checking it out

Actually I don't love the animated scroll-down either, but the info junkie in me wanted to put all the info on one single page. The way I use the site is by skimming from top to bottom, similar to reading a newspaper - the menu is there just in case

Appreciate the feedback, consider your voted counted!