Exactly! Putting proper 'base rates' next to an article, so the reader as the quantitative context.
Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-term historical averages to give a sense of the underlying frequency of an event...
Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-term historical averages to give a sense of the underlying frequency of an event...