ssivark
Joined 15 years ago
Joined 15 years ago
Perhaps because statistics education attunes us to average over individual differences, any mention of "data" unfortunately makes people instinctively jump to this 'cross-sectional' corner... textbooks explain how the typical human body behaves, and standard education and medical practice respectively emphasize averaging and population-level guidelines.
I think this approach is limited in some fundamental ways, and forces a dilemma: either accept wide and unactionable bands for what counts as normal, or use narrow bands that over-pathologize most individuals as diseased. The natural consequence of this is to start "fixing" deviations, and this is the territory of dangerous over-steering. This is why the medical community is afraid of "incidentalomas" and over-intervention. Tests which are point-in-time and compare one human to others are problematic in this respect. This is especially acute when the body is measured along many axes: like a full body scan. Much like the US Air Force Study of pilots discovered that there is no single pilot compatible with the "average" pilot measurements, comparing metrics from an individual's full body scan to a cohort average is likely to drastically overestimate problems.
In some ways, learned systems (like our physiology which is constantly adapting to our individual environment and experiences) follow the opposite of the Anna Karenina principle: every healthy individual is healthy in their own way. So the real diagnostic leverage isn't comparing an individual to an aggregate human template, but measuring change against their own homeostasis, and this requires high temporal resolution, not wider population comparisons.
I'm currently exploring how to bring this kind of longitudinal tracking to higher-fidelity modalities like wearable imaging. If any clinicians or researchers here are thinking about how to operationalize personal baselines in practice, I'd love to chat (email in profile).
What is unfortunate about this? I suspect we concur in not buying into the AGI/ASI/RSI/<jargon of the day> hype, but this isn't this kind of breakthrough extremely valuable regardless?
Maybe it's not expanding the convex hull of what is possible, but the fact is that human progress is extremely jagged even within that convex hull -- for myriad reasons limitations related to funding, cross-domain expertise, number of scientists, etc.
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If you're worried about what it takes for a novice setting out in the field, it might be useful to see how specific "mature" subfields have evolved in their training structures. Eg. I have a background in theoretical physics and it is common for grad students to do courses for a couple of more years and take a few more years to reach the same productivity compared to grad students in (say) CS/AI.
Since you're also thinking about a user giving their agent access to their inbox -- any thoughts on what are the right capability primitives for that situation, and how the API & access tokens can represent that?
Whether it's an oversight in just this work, or TCS more broadly, I do not know. But it's a fundamental point nonetheless.
One can of course make a puzzle out of anything, but it behooves asking what situation is being modelled by that problem.
And yes, this criticism might apply more broadly to TCS rather than just this specific artifact from OpenAI. It's reward hacking regardless of whether humans do it or LLMs.
number multiplication is basically convolution and closely tied with FFTs, so I wouldn't personally be surprised even if a lot of the "FFT's work" could somehow be stuffed into exact arithmetic operations, and the remaining costs just track the packing and unpacking from that representation. It's just an exploit of the book-keeping.
That's ignoring the other complaints about this being a galactic algorithm.
Even easier if, additionally, many of the smaller websites were syndicated into a tracking network?
Also, from the study:
> The non-UPF and UPF test meals were closely matched on meal weight, energy, energy density, macronutrients, available carbohydrate, glycaemic index and load, total dietary fibre, sodium and water (all ≤1.6% deviation between meals; Fig. 1b).
The math peer review process can take months/years to decide on the correctness of a solution -- especially those written as sloppily as these AI proofs. Let's see what the numbers are once the dust settles -- how many of the 700 are correct, and how many of those are valuable.
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We're seeing the math analogue of this: https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/anthropic-ai-mode...
email: siva dot rk dot sw at Google's email service
(Opinions my own; not representing any entity)