raghavtoshniwal

There was o4-mini and 4o-mini

I agree. Do you think LLMs can now handle relatively larger codebases than they did before? If yes, do you think this trend will stop at some point?

Haha - cool that you made a throwaway insult account just for this. I meant punch cards as a placeholder for programming in a bygone era, about how it feels so different, distant and detached, and that I don't relate to it.

I can see a plausible future where if we go down this route, what I call coding right now will feel the same.

I feel a certain way when I hear about older programmers who used to program using punch cards, I guess everyone in the future will think about us in the same way?

I think you're correct but your bar is too high, I think this app would be useful even if it was a lossy approximation Hemingway from his writings. As a thought experiment - I would value what a PhD who dedicated her career to studying one author and their works to tell me what she thinks about a piece of writing from that author's lens. (It's not too far from it)

> Anything else is like trying to eat a picture of a sandwich to satisfy your hunger.

I think it's more akin to you trying to recreate a different sandwich after reading a couple of their cook-books.

Isn't that a bit like saying that if common cold is solved, you will believe that human intelligence is possible? Why isn't it super intelligent if there are security flaws in the system. [Not taking a stance on wether super intelligence is possible but your condition seems a bit arbitrary]

I feel insane cognitive dissonance when I read a comment like this. I know/hope what you're saying is in good faith and you aren't trolling. Yet my own experience on how good these models have become and how rapidly they're improving makes me feel like we're talking about 2 completely different things.

Screw the benchmarks, it feels insane how much utility these models already provide in my life and that they keep getting better. I guess all my problems are simple and and "lie in the span of text on the internet", but they're still extremely valuable to me.

>subpar scores at benchmarks like SWE-bench

The last few models have remarkably improved on SWE-bench too. o3 scores 73%, this number was in the low teens 16 months ago. Willing to wager that SWE benchmark gets saturated before the end of 2025.

> aren't particularly representative of what a real coding job

I don't know about that, large swath of "real world" coding is writing plumbing and UIs for CRUD apps, they're getting really good at that as well. Anecdotally, engineers I know have gotten insanely productive with tools like Cursor.

The article you linked is from Sept '24 and points to the ARC-AGI test as "evidence" that we're not getting close.

We're in Feb '25. ARC-AGI (at least the version they're referencing) already has been solved by AI at above average human level.

>everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns.

Seems like everything in just Dec '24/ Jan '25 points the other way. These models are already helping PhDs in novel research, they're already getting super human at coding (yes yes, they're not perfect and I'm sure someone on HN has this weird coding job that AI can't replace yet and they're very excited to shit over AI), but they've already replaced a lot of real software dev jobs.

Also aren't you contradicting yourself?

> everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns

> corporation replacing employees with AI

If we have incremental progress, how are corporations going to replace employees with AI?

Forget singularity, do you think the robotics problem is genuinely hard enough that if we devoted significant amount of intelligence to it, it would not get solved?

>any day now Optimus will become sentient and replace home builders.

I think you're kidding about being "sentient" but it feels like they just have to get somewhat good at a very few tasks and we would be able to automate some large swath of manual labour. We don't need that many fancy tricks to get there. A lot of people are already reporting significant speed ups in Bio research, why wouldn't we see that in robotics?

The world’s richest man got handed this mandate by someone that was elected by millions of US citizens and he explicitly told them he will do this. Enough people in the US want to see this happen.

I don't know if enough people would not agree to highly tax the corporations if they're themselves out of work and need the money to survive.