The article you linked is from Sept '24 and points to the ARC-AGI test as "evidence" that we're not getting close.
We're in Feb '25. ARC-AGI (at least the version they're referencing) already has been solved by AI at above average human level.
>everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns.
Seems like everything in just Dec '24/ Jan '25 points the other way. These models are already helping PhDs in novel research, they're already getting super human at coding (yes yes, they're not perfect and I'm sure someone on HN has this weird coding job that AI can't replace yet and they're very excited to shit over AI), but they've already replaced a lot of real software dev jobs.
Also aren't you contradicting yourself?
> everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns
> corporation replacing employees with AI
If we have incremental progress, how are corporations going to replace employees with AI?
We're in Feb '25. ARC-AGI (at least the version they're referencing) already has been solved by AI at above average human level.
>everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns.
Seems like everything in just Dec '24/ Jan '25 points the other way. These models are already helping PhDs in novel research, they're already getting super human at coding (yes yes, they're not perfect and I'm sure someone on HN has this weird coding job that AI can't replace yet and they're very excited to shit over AI), but they've already replaced a lot of real software dev jobs.
Also aren't you contradicting yourself?
> everything points to incremental progress with signs of diminishing returns
> corporation replacing employees with AI
If we have incremental progress, how are corporations going to replace employees with AI?