peterbonney
Joined 10 years ago
Joined 10 years ago
But that’s exactly it! The mathematicians are framing this as being bad for human understanding of math, but it’s obviously really about their own motivations for developing that understanding! Which, again, goes back to the obvious conclusion that what they have lost is the extrinsic motivation for being first, not the intrinsic motivation of developing understanding.
That is totally fine! I wouldn’t be motivated to do my job if I wasn’t extrinsically rewarded for doing so. But I am also not feeding anyone a line of BS about how it’s actually some other higher-minded motivation driving my work.
I’m empathetic to the instability of the extrinsic rewards for doing math research as a profession in the current moment. I am not at all empathetic to an attempt to manipulate me into thinking that the real problem is something other than that.
It’s like an entrepreneur complaining that they can’t build a business that would better humanity because of high taxes. That’s fine - but the motivation lacking there is obviously making money, not bettering humanity.
Knowing that a solution exists is not an impediment to deepening your understanding of a problem.
For example: Knowing that there is a proof of Pythagoras’ theorem is not an impediment to thousands (millions?) of geometry students developing the intuition that comes from drawing the famous diagram where the number of squares visually add up to one another.
What about the existence of an AI-generated proof prevents a mathematician from working through the problem on their own to deepen their understanding, as if the proof didn’t exist in the first place?
That’s what is hard to understand.
I find this argument difficult to understand. As a math student in college with no ambitions (or realistic opportunity or aptitude) to pursue original contributions to the field, everything I learned was by definition already solved. Nevertheless I was able to - required to, in fact - work through each solution in order to develop understanding. And I did in fact learn by this method, as countless other students did before and after me.
So when I hear this argument from mathematicians, all I can hear is that they are frustrated at being out back into the position of being students, where the end result of the hard work of understanding is just the understanding itself without the prize of a new discovery. If they want to find the solution without reading it, they are still very much able to do so, just as their students do every day.
There are roughly 2,500 individual companies listed in the US alone with a market cap that exceeds 1 billion dollars. Tesla's market cap is 1.4 trillion - about 1,000 times the size of all prediction markets put together.
In other words, to the extent this incentive is of societal concern, it is not because of prediction markets - that is the tail wagging the dog.
Edit: to be clear I think these markets are a scourge as they currently operate, but not for this reason.
(1) https://predik.io/en/blog/open-interest-mercados-prediccion-...
And yes, it’s worrisome in its own way, but not in any of the ways that all of this attention and engagement is suggesting.
But observing my own Openclaw bot’s interactions with GitHub, it is very clear to me that it would never take an action like this unless I told it to do so. And it would never use language like this unless unless I prompted it to do so, either explicitly for the task or in its config files or in prior interactions.
This is obviously human-driven. Either because the operator gave it specific instructions in this specific case, or acted as the bot, or has given it general standing instructions to respond in this way should such a situation arise.
Whatever the actual process, it’s almost certainly a human puppeteer using the capabilities of AI to create a viral moment. To conclude otherwise carries a heavy burden of proof.
This whole thing reeks of engineered virality driven by the person behind the bot behind the PR, and I really wish we would stop giving so much attention to the situation.
Edit: “Hoax” is the word I was reaching for but couldn’t find as I was writing. I fear we’re primed to fall hard for the wave of AI hoaxes we’re starting to see.
Dark stuff.