Recent submissions

Comment · 1 day ago
I feel even a "high junk" rating for debt issued by an LLM company is far too generous. A bond rated "BB" by S&P would be typical of the safest of the junk bonds. Historically, such bonds have about a 10% risk of default over 10 years: https://investmentgrade.com/bond-ratings/

While I'm willing to believe that Anthropic common stock might somehow be a reasonable investment because it might go "to the moon", it seems obvious that this is a high-risk bet. This is shaping up to be a winner-take-all industry. Does anyone really think there is a 90% chance that Anthropic will be that winner?

If you thought there really was only a 10% chance that they'd fail to be in business in a decade, why wouldn't you just buy their common stock and hope for a 100x return? How do the rating agencies justify this degree of confidence in Anthropic's ability to repay these debts? Or do I somehow misunderstand what these ratings mean?

Comment · 2 days ago
Comment · 2 days ago
Neat result, and good writeup! I don't have time to compare them, but another resource you might look at is Daniel Lemire's "Fast Division": https://github.com/lemire/fast_division

If you've come up with something better, I'd encourage you to contact Daniel and see if he's interested in helping you write it up into a paper. He's friendly, and may be better positioned to get the optimizations into mainstream compilers.

Comment · 3 days ago
> Oh, deer hunting season... when half my team is already on v̶a̶c̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ strike.

Having grown up somewhere where about half the school teachers took the week off for deer hunting, I'm pleasantly surprised that there exist places where this might still be the case even for tech workers. Would I be guessing right that you are describing somewhere in Wisconsin?

Comment · 11 days ago
This might be the wrong question, but are there reasonable tests for whether a home distilled beverage contains unacceptable levels of methanol?

If such tests exist, it would seem like they could go a long way to increasing the safety of home distilling. If no such test is possible, maybe it makes sense to regulate very tightly?

Comment · 25 days ago
Comment · 26 days ago
> I don't know if the author of this post had any medical credentials.

In his defense, this is written on his personal blog where (quite possibly) many readers already have some reason to trust his advice. And while I'm not sure what counts as appropriate credentials, on his linked HN bio (https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=bookofjoe) he claims to be a "Retired (38 years in practice) neurosurgical anesthesiologist". He also links to a lot of Google Scholar papers on medical topics for which he is a co-author.

(Oops, beaten by Dan, but I'll leave it up anyway. While I agree with Dan that you might have phrased it a bit better, I did think it was a fair question.)

Comment · 26 days ago
Sure, I think the rebuttal is that while your numbers are correct (and possibly even more in your favor than you may have guessed) they aren't particularly relevant.

First, the numbers. My searching says that for some particular lake in Nebraska, "Average annual gross lake evaporation ranges from about 48 inches to 54 inches". Let's call it 4 feet per year, which means 4 acre-feet of water evaporates per acre per year. Trusting some numbers someone gave in a comment earlier, the data center in question used about 40 acre-feet per year. So 10 acres of lake would evaporate about the same rate as the data center. At a very rough guess, there are something like 200,000 acres of non-seasonal lakes in Nebraska, so this is indeed a tiny percentage.

Next, the relevance. The lakes are more or less in a steady state. But if you were actually to double the evaporation rate for a 10 acre lake, you might quickly end up with a muddy pit instead of a lake. The fish would be gone, and the users of that lake would have good reason to complain. If lake was 10 times larger, so that you were only increasing the evaporation by 10%, over time you'd still probably have a major effect on the shoreline and any infrastructure there. What used to be a useable pier might look over a mud flat rather than the water, and launching a boat would be impossible until you built a new one.

But the real issue is that water use isn't actually fungible. Water continuing to evaporate from a lake at the rate it always has definitionally doesn't make people's life worse than it was. But suddenly pumping of the same amount of groundwater might be really bad for the neighbors who previously were using the same water to irrigate their fields. And trying to double the output of a small municipal water system might (at least in the short term) make things much harder for all the existing users on the system. This doesn't necessarily mean it shouldn't be done, but it's a harm that should be considered.

That's my good faith attempt to answer you. In return, I have a quick research question that I think is essential to understanding whether or not data center water usage is a big deal or not, and that I haven't seen mentioned yet in the comments: Where is this water for these new data centers coming from? Is it from new wells they drill? Existing irrigation wells they buy and repurpose? From the local municipal water supply? Rainwater collection? Diverting a nearby river?

I feel like there's no way to answer the question of whether data center water usage matters without considering the actual local impact, and no way of determining the impact without considering the specifics of the source. But somehow I haven't seen any mention of this on either side of the debate.

Comment · 1 month ago
I think your confidence is likely misplaced, but I vouched for your comment to revive it from the dead because you expressed your opinion clearly and with examples.

To the flaggers: flag comments that you think violate the rules, but don't flag something just because you strongly disagree with the claim it makes.

Comment · 1 month ago
Ah, I had forgotten about that extra level of confusion! That does explain the difference in conversion.
Comment · 1 month ago
I didn't vote, but my guess would be that it's because "aphantasia" (the inability to visualize images) is a popular topic on this site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aphantasia. Some people see images in their head, and others (possibly overrepresented here) simply don't. My guess would be that a comment that starts by assuming everyone sees images in their heads was considered misleading and simplistic.
Comment · 1 month ago
Umm, no? A liter is slightly larger than a quart, so 10 quarts is about 9.5L.

For reference, did you mess this up yourself or did it require AI?

Comment · 1 month ago
Comment · 1 month ago

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