aakilfernandes

IANAL but I believe the legal theory is they stole proprietary information from Coinbase (information about an upcoming listing) and used it for personal profit. The "victims" in this view are NOT users of the exchange (or the broader cryptocurrency market) but rather shareholders of Coinbase.

Almost all crypto lending (at least the defi/smart-contract variety) is collateralized lending. There's still a sort of "counterparty" risk, in that the management has to operate price feeds/risk algos to make sure the collateral stays safely about the loan value.

Analyses like this just take the energy cost of each block of transactions and divide it by the amount of transactions in the block. If the number of transactions in a block doubles, the average energy cost per transaction is halved.

Another way of stating it is "the marginal energy usage of a bitcoin transaction is essentially 0".

Played around with bitmessage for a bit and worked on an alternative for a bit. Here's some thoughts:

1. Like most gossip networks, it uses tcp. Since most consumer devices won't allow for incoming tcp connections, the end result is that most traffic gets routed through the small fraction of nodes on cloud servers. While this is true for most gossip networks, it is particularly problematic when you're using it bandwidth intensive applications (a twitter/parler alternative).

2. Using PoW for spam prevention is better than nothing, but the PoW algorithm is a simple sha256 hash. Sha256 ASICs will keep spam cost effective. Not sure if there's any solution. I think using some kind of crypto based incentive would be better economics, though of course have an increased user burden of acquiring crypto.

3. Bitmessage IMHO tries to be too many things with a message storage/rebroadcast protocol on top of a gossip network. All of these suffer from less than great documentation.

I'm aware, I'm just hesitant due to the counter party/smart contract security risk. In a few years when some of these platforms have more of a track record, I'll probably start using them. Seems like polymarket has done pretty well this cycle.

Spent a lot of time/money this election cycle betting on the spread between Predictit and 538. I did act more conservatively by only making a bet when it made sense given all 3 versions of 538s' model.

ROI around 12% (not including 5% withdrawl fee). Expect it to go a few points higher given that called elections are still trading at 90c, but PredictIt won't close due to ongoing litigation.

Why? There's no need to use some game-theoretic machine for getting data when you can just get it direct from the source.

You're comparing two scenarios, one in which you know all the facts, and one in which you don't.

In the dice toss scenario, we know everything relevant. In the election scenario, we don't.

A model like this is attempting to say "these are the rules we think exist. Based on the rules, and assuming the data is off by some random distribution, here's what we think could happen".

What different forecasters disagree about is what the rules are. For example, the relevance of certain demographic characteristics and the potential variance between polling (conducted prior to the election) and actual election results.

There's a huge amount of assumptions, and forecasters disagree on those assumptions. We have very little historical data (polling is very recent) and even with complete historical data, future elections do not always conform to past elections.

Could this just be a result of low sampling by the author? If you reduce a sample to only include some tiny edge case, the resulting data points are going to be weird in random ways.

Not really possible cause we don't know how much carbon PoW generates. You could naively just assume they generates the average amount (which is what some analysts have done), but I doubt that would be accurate.

The S&P500 is not an index of the entire economy. It's heavily weighted towards the tech sector.

The hardest hit businesses (retail, restaurants, service) were small parts of the S&P500 because they usually don't have the economies of scale that tech has, and therefore don't produce the mega-caps that dominate the S&P500.

Sorry, who is "we"? And got a writeup anywhere?

Whats missing is proof of delivery, and thats the most important thing. I'm not just paying AWS to store my files, I'm paying them to deliver my files.

Maybe this could work as an alternative to glacier. But even then, I doubt it. I'd take Amazon with an SLA any day of the week.