Comment by theli0nheart

If you review FOMC projections from June 17, 2026 [1], you can see that fed funds rate expectations indeed shifted upwards since March.

  Percent range |    2026    |    2027    |    2028    | Longer run
                | March June | March June | March June | March June
  --------------+------------+------------+------------+-----------
  2.13-2.37     |            |            |            |
  2.38-2.62     |            |     1      |            |
  2.63-2.87     |     1      |     1      |     2      |     2
  2.88-3.12     |     2      |     3    1 |     3    1 |     7    9
  3.13-3.37     |     2      |     6    4 |     7    6 |     4    3
  3.38-3.62     |     7    1 |     4    3 |     3    2 |     3    3
  3.63-3.87     |     7    8 |     3    2 |     3    5 |     2    2
  3.88-4.12     |          3 |     1    5 |     1    3 |     1    1
  4.13-4.37     |          5 |          2 |            |
  4.38-4.62     |          1 |          1 |            |

[1]: "Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2026–28 and over the longer run"

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20...