> Increasing interest rates is new information which surprised everybody
The people I know who pay attention to AI and finance, including both bulls and bears, near-unanimously agreed that AI would cause interest rates to go up.
Example: "AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years" [1] – their argument (written in 2023) is that if the market expects AGI soon, then interest rates should be high.
The people I know who pay attention to AI and finance, including both bulls and bears, near-unanimously agreed that AI would cause interest rates to go up.
Example: "AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years" [1] – their argument (written in 2023) is that if the market expects AGI soon, then interest rates should be high.
[1] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ngpC5PFAgxHJMhicM/agi-and-th...