zenmacro
Joined 4 years ago
Joined 4 years ago
Do the rules say that FDIC has to sell these right away? I imagine they have discretion on timing the sales so that it doesn't dislocate the market. The FDIC is all about stability, after all...
> First Republic’s funding relies in large part on wealthy individuals who increasingly have a range of options to seek higher yields on their cash at other financial institutions as interest rates have risen.
Over the last year I kept my FRC checking account at 100 (not the real number). A month back or so I dropped it down to 50 and moved the other 50 into T-Bills.
Two of the largest bank ETFs are down around ~8% today. SIVB is only 2% of the holdings of KBE and 3% of KBWB.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/KBE:NYSEARCA
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/KBWB:NASDAQ
A former Bridgewater guy who I respect very much is saying that the panic is totally uncalled for: https://mobile.twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/163395659942...
AMZN: -2.2%
AAPL: -1.9%
META: -3.42%
MSFT: +0.45%
GOOGL: -8.21%
I agree that we shouldn't buy into the media's perpetual gloom & doom machine but I also caution against the knee-jerk contrarian "everything is fine" impulse.
The percentage rate of change is often the best signal in these kinds of indicators. We're around 20% YoY. The last two years (2004 & 2008) we hit that kind of level weren't strong economies.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=ZAtQ
The Dec '22 FOMC Minutes also hinted that the FOMC is also watching credit card levels. Interest rates have exploded higher yet consumers are increasing their credit card debt.