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If you (or anyone else) think you can effectively break bitcoin then there is a billion dollar bounty available to you in the form of a highly leveraged bitfinex short position.

Bitcoin's governance model is what makes it special. 1) The founder declared it would have a maximum of 21 million coins with a set mining schedule 2) Many/most of the people who bought into it implicitly agreed that this is the core feature of bitcoin - that it would only ever have 21 million coins 3) The founder disappeared/died/whatever 4) Now, everyone continues to agree on the 21 million coin cap. If anyone tries to change this, they are opposing the founder and the reason many people bought bitcoin. At that point bitcoin will become the most used chain that maintains the set 21 million cap

This lack of governance as well as scarcity consensus is by far the strongest mechanism to maintain a scarce supply that we have in existence. It is not totally infallible - maybe a superhuman AI could social engineer the entire bitcoin community to increase the cap. But it is the best I can imagine is possible. The network effect of more people buying into it makes that 21 million meme stronger and stronger, and satoshi being "gone" reduces the risk that he comes back and declares that he has "changed his mind". Even if he did do that the core 21 million devotees will fork the coin to a 21 million and that will be the truly scarce bitcoin.

Therefore, this is the most securely scarce asset in existence.

We had a medical student who had her abdomen scanned as part of teaching. They found a cystic looking thing on her pancreas. She ended up getting it excised - it was benign and would've never caused problems, but she had multiple complications and 2 months in hospital as a result of the surgery.

I think Doctors (I am one) definitely err on the side of overtreating in those uncertain situations. Just like politicians, it feels more caring to act than to not act.

If you MRI 1000 people and leave the vague results in the hands of a bunch of physicians, they will tend to be interventional. This will lead to a spate of overtreatment.

Ways around this would be to consent patients for watchful waiting in the case of uncertain lesions. Even so, telling people they have weird looking lumps that you're not going to treat will cause serious anxiety.

If the form factor is good enough why wouldn't you want the ability to have a tablet sized screen whenever you need a bit more space to do stuff?

This seems like the first actual bit of interesting innovation in smartphones in about a decade..

cool project, expected response from BCH crew. permissionless is permissionless. they need to suck it up.

Masayoshi seems great at picking market tops and buying into them.

But it would be pretty easy to obfuscate the whole thing behind a few layers of "We've got 50 PhDs working here, we run black box algorithms" etc etc, the strategy could be artificially made a couple of orders of magnitude more complex while still producing the exact same outcome.

Do hedge fund investors keep an eye on whether you do what you say? How did Bernie Madoff go for so long if that's the case?

Of course the mechanism is simple and mechanical, but that isn't how you'd market it to investors.

I'll go read the Lo paper...

ok while we're playing "ask a hedge fund guy"

Say I set up a fund holding a low cost s&p500 index ETF, but at the end of each year sold naked puts with a ~1/25 risk of ruin to earn ~4% return. Therefore my fund consistently makes 4% over the market index, except for 1/25 years when it explodes and loses everything. Because the volatility is low, my sharpe ratio is good (until it explodes), correct?

Assuming it can stay in business >10-15 years won't I be a billionaire hedge fund manager by then and then change to a low risk strategy that only makes 1-2% more than market index with very low risk of ruin and just let my investors lose interest and quit the fund over the next decade while I continue to earn fees from them?

I think even zuck would have given up on any political aspirations at this point. He's a total pariah.

Honestly, who wants to be a billionaire at this point? Even if you promise to give away 99% of your money everyone still hates you.

I sold most @ $16.5k in the dead cat bounce after the bubble.

I just bought quite a few back @ $3800.

You get used to it, this is my 3rd or 4th >80% drawdown. Still remember $30->$2 in 2011/12

So you say that tribes can physiologically adapt depending on their environment.

Do you then admit that tribes can adapt cognitively depending on their environment? Or does adaptation only occur below the neck?