xavils
Joined 11 years ago
Joined 11 years ago
I'm probably biased cause my wife created the music.
10.8% would not be unheard of, over a shorter span at least, right?
- Boom 10 years - Recession 5 years
- Initial property price, rounded current price in city center for 2bdr in each city. Hong Kong is a little bit too expensive but I currently live there and it's so expensive that it had to be exagerated.
- The 20% you need to buy and 40 year mortgage is how the property sector was working until 2008 in my hometown, Barcelona, before the recession.
- Mortgage rate is 3%
- Rent you receive is around 7% of property value annually
- Inflation is +4% annually during boom and -6% during recession
- Savings return is around 1% annually
- owned property devaluation happens during 15 years until it reaches a minimum and then keeps up with recession/boom cycles
I will improve boom/bust soon.
- You pay 20K for a house.
- You owe 80K + 80K * 2.5% * 40 years. That's your total debt.
- If you want to cancel the mortgage, you must pay 80K, and your net worth will go up because you do not have the 40 year mortgage anymore (even if you just paid 80K).
- If you buy and sell one year after, the same happens with mortgage towards your net worth. In terms of savings, during 1 year you will get approx 600 * 12 rent, -350 * 12 mortgage. That's 3K more. Then your remaining savings will go up 1% (as savings account return) which is around 200. Last, Since it's a boom in the economic cycle, while your debt will have diminished, the value of your house will have increased. So basically you sell the house for more, owe less and that is the result.
This situation is what makes the world go crazy over real estate, become overbought and then, BOOM. Economic crisis.