wwwpatdelcom
Joined 4 years ago
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77
Member since
Jan 30
You can check out my website/blog at www.patdel.com
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Comment · 11 months ago
Thanks. Everything is completely stateless at this point and there's a defined close time with everything being on the server side in terms of timestamps.
Could you give me a link to what you're referring to and what you have seen in the past with this specific problem?
I think I have it solved but would like to know more as words can have multiple definitions.
Comment · 11 months ago
Basically, this is software that allows you to deploy your own prediction market platform from scratch that you own and control. You can invite friends and add users, anyone can add questions and make bets toward those contracts.
Most importantly, anyone can host this completely for free either on a local machine or a VPS.
The setup process includes a command line interface which allows you to enter a few options and it sets everything up for you...assuming you have a server such as Digital Ocean and a domain you can use.
I do this in my free time with some others who are of course listed on the Github repo.
We will be moving to a services based architecture at some point soon, but for this release it's basically a, "pretty good monolith."
We have been through a few different release cycles since the last time I posted. I added some GIFs to the readme to clearly show how easy it is to get it going. I would love it if anyone wants to give it a try. We included automatic SSL establishment via Traefik.
Thanks in advance if you choose to give feedback.
Comment · 1 year ago
Cool idea, forked it to OpenPredictionMarkets .. .thanks!
Comment · 2 years ago
First off, I'm glad we all got our daily thought about the Roman Empire in today. Secondly, this author is much more qualified than me to either agree or refute this; I believe we need to be incredibly skeptical when reading about Roman Engineering failures. I wrote and researched about this, using some of Vitruvius' writings last year: https://patdel.substack.com/p/why-didnt-ancient-rome-have-a-....
* Rome was incredibly paternalistic, so pointing out the failures of others without appropriate aristocratic station might not have been quite the exercise in pure engineering that we might consider engineering to be today, even though Rome obviously made great engineering accomplishments and one might think that celebrated Roman architects could not be writing anything other than in a strictly professional manner. I think that when we read Vitruvius through a modern lens, we might think, "Oh this dude was a real professional, he makes good points," when in reality I think, at least in the example I point out in my blog post, I think he might have been using an example of failure to say, "See? Only royals, aristocrats and rich people should even try to innovate."
Granted, there wasn't liability insurance for architectural or engineering failures as far as I am aware so this belief may have been prudent in terms of saving lives, but I think there was probably a primarily social-religious reasoning for it.
The idea of the rich, hereditary classes, the father of the household, the ones in charge being the only ones, "allowed," to innovate was deeply held in Ancient Rome, much like in Confucianism and other agricultural societies that have formed through human history. "Don't rock the boat."
I don't think it was until the 1500's or so that humanity started to collectively emerge out of that type of mentality as pre-industrialization and the scientific revolution began. Eventually the aristocrats (in Europe) saw non-royals being so successful at being industrialists, they wanted in on the game and removed laws that prevented them from engaging in capitalism.
The author writes:
> Its failure became a cautionary tale of an unrealistic project that sought to go beyond what nature allowed. Five decades later, the Roman senator and historian Tacitus claimed that evidence of this ‘futile ambition’ could still be seen in the rock faces near Avernus. Interestingly, Tacitus did not blame the vainglorious and weak-willed emperor alone, but also the architects who conceived the project and were judged to have ‘frittered away the resources of a Caesar’.
I read that as the author saying that Tacitus was angling the engineering failure analysis in a political way, not a purely engineering post-failure-analysis way. E.g., the project might have even been a success but then Tacitus just lied about it, we don't know.
Comment · 3 years ago
That feedback came straight from my basal ganglia.
Though I'm guessing that was a pretty expensive domain name. So in lieu of changing it, on this issue I can be bought off.
But I will accept a bribe in the form of a medium sized T-Shirt to not make fun of you further. The T-Shirt must include an anthropomorphized gaussian curve in a math meme format and the curve-person must be clearly labeled as being name, "Kurt Osis."
Any Kurtosis logo must be either non-existent or super non-prominent so that I can at least pretend that it's a meme and then maybe tail into where it came from. A huge emblazoned Kurtosis logo on the back or front will be unacceptable (although Kurt Osis could have that logo on his or her or their shirt).
Comment · 3 years ago
As a both devops and ML professional at my job (it's a small company), I viscerally cringe at the same kurtosis for this company (which I just learned about). There could be some kind of latent jealously/projection causing that cringe, but here's my rationale (could be very specific to my career):
* Devops folks don't seem to tend to like math and often got there by practicing, "computers, IT, having fun hooking things together and getting them running."
* Data science folks don't tend to like devops and prefer to bash around on a jupyter notebook that's already given to them and then maybe extract that python and see if it runs, but they tend to come from more of a science background and got into python as a hobby or incidentally. They do not like bashing around and getting things running.
So now this company is combining a math term that has a specific meaning to an ML ops space, which is going to cause confusion.
Different sets of data can have different kurtosis measures. Sets can be platykurtic (flat gaussian curve or high kurtosis) or leptokurtic (tall gaussian curve, low kurtosis).
Now this company is coming in and telling a bunch of devops people, "Kurtosis means helm but automatically migrate data too." So they are applying the idea of, "leptokurtic deployments," presumably with the metric being, variation between the code and data parameters on those servers. Data science people who are told about it from devops people are going to initially hear, "somehow dealing with cleaning the data, like an ETL pipeline, perhaps an Airflow with data cleaning tools built in or something."
It's very confusing and not helpful to customers, I hate it. There are going to be meetings where ML/Devops people are very confused.
Naming is hard though -- but I wish they would have gone with something like, "platypus" and just have a cute little platypus baby as the logo and say, "yeah we liked the word platykurtic because we like making things regular and platykurtic sounds like platypus."
Comment · 3 years ago
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