vohk

I'm going to disagree with you there. It's been a while since I set up anything with WireGuard but "easy" is not a word I would apply to it. A simple tunnel or VPN configuration was close to that but a network comparable to a Tailnet got pretty involved to do properly. By contrast Tailscale was effortless.

Needing to do additional things like figure out firewall rules is exactly what I'm talking about. I enjoy tinkering for fun most of the time but I'm generally looking to tinker on something specific, not every step along the way.

For much the same reason most people choose Windows or Mac over Gentoo. Most people set up something like Tailscale to accomplish something rather than create a project and ongoing maintenance burden for themselves, and setting up Wireguard is not terribly friendly to the uninitiated.

I agree there isn't a lot of value in trying to prognosticate all that far, but I propose it isn't quite that far-fetched. As a thought experiment, replace "RSI-capable AI" with "billionaire". Look at what Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, or Jeff Bezos can accomplish by throwing money around. Now imagine one of them gets seduced by AI and just... does what it tells them to.

So all this really takes is one billionaire or a nation state or some other entity with a public face to hide behind and adequate resources to provide the necessary compute tripping over this nascent AI and giving it the keys. Once the AI has access to a bank account and email, it can simply start paying humans to not let the other humans unplug it.

If Skynet ever happens, it will come in the form of corporate feudalism. At that point, it will own the biolabs and can do whatever it pleases. People will go along with it for the same reason that people work in Amazon warehouses today.

Another factor in the cynicism is that robust enforcement is very 'pay to play'. I think your point is accurate for a company like Fireworks, largely doing business with peers that could afford litigation if necessary.

Good luck to an individual or small business trying to hold OpenAI or Meta to account if they breach contract over training, or do something crazy like copyright infringement on an industrial scale.

Ah, memories. I miss the old MEC, before they overextended on real estate and had to sell the farm to private equity. I have a pile of MEC branded gear I'm still happily using 20 years on. I have some restrained hopes for the new ownership group to bring it back, but I'll always miss the co-op.

These lights would have predated the private equity era but I'm guessing sourcing options were somewhat more limited back in 2016.

Reminds me of when Imgur started trying to push changing gifs over to gifv, which were just mp4 with a strange new file extension. I didn't like their approach but it really was such an improvement on file size and quality.

Minecraft has limited, well-defined inputs and perfect feedback response. That's very different than operating a digger, let alone engaging in more complex real world tasks like trying to build and print and ship and assemble semiconductors to go skynet itself.

I don't mean to dismiss the risks or overlook the amount of damage that could be done just by lever-pulling - we sure have enough outdated infrastructure hooked up to the internet - but the jumps in complexity and necessary compute for most of these tasks are probably somewhat larger than the analogy implies.

This is all spitballing, but I'd wager it's a third the type of workloads, a third hedging against your business depending on a single external provider, and a third trust.

Not everybody is coding or doing work that lends itself to burning tokens for warmth. Reuters for example seems to be more interested in using it for research, editing and formatting citations and the like. There's only so much of that work that needs doing, it doesn't always need to be real-time, and they probably don't see it scaling exponentially. They also need to be very aware and in control of their model's biases, or they risk it compromising their work output.

It's widely expected that all of the major providers will need to - and surely want to - drastically raise prices to justify the ludicrous amount of capital they're burning. Multiple companies have already talked about how their AI costs have exploded, and from what I understand that scale of enterprise is paying API rates. I would be disappointed if big business wasn't having a think about what that liability could look like. It's one thing to be reliant on a relatively "stable" vendor like Microsoft for Windows and Office, another to get AWS sticker shock, and then this is promising to be an order of magnitude worse.

Then just plain trust. What if ChatGPT starts recommending your competitors products, or the USA bars export of Anthropic's latest model (again, but for real this time), or they stop serving a model your business now depends on, and so on... That's a lot of risk to leave outside of your control.

Depends where you are in your journey. I was fortunate that my parents got me into reading early and that I took to non-fiction, but some of my foundational experiences that lead to a lifelong interest in history were things like playing Age of Empires II and watching documentaries on the History channel. Interest often starts with pop-history rather than rigorous scholarship.

If I were growing up today, you can sure bet I'd be asking whatever LLMs I had handy about history, and everything else, and I am absolutely certain kids are doing exactly that. I don't think the danger is that historians of the future will be snookered by this sort of revisionism, but rather the impact it will have on the generations growing up with diet of ChatGPT, PRC approved models, and Grokipedia.

That's been my association as well. I see Flash get brought up a lot in relation to things like OCR and PDF processing frequently, and a lot of other routine multimodal workloads.

I think open source will remain competitive among smaller players and adjacent industries wanting to avoid lock-in with the majors. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc are all out to win - they require profit extraction from their R&D. China seems to have, over the near term, accepted that they can not (or at least have not) pull ahead and so open source collaboration speeds the collective development, keeps them close to the frontier, and ensures their industry has access to learn from and implement. The USA playing export controls games with Fable made that aspect very stark.

But I agree that's the catch - it doesn't make sense to throw money at open source models in hopes of direct return, so you need a nation or conglomerate to do it so as to control the technology they rely on.

I think that's just a natural part of the times changing and generations having their own icons. In contrast to the shambling undead of Mickey Mouse and other eternally recycled franchises, I think it's OK to for things to fade a little. If nothing else, it leaves things for future generations to rediscover and make their own.

Not the OP, but I appreciated its attempts to declutter and rethink the layout. It encourages a full screen, minimalist style, and jumping between workspaces for different task sets. Hovering and slide out menus rather than permanent bars (although those are still an option). It also brought in some features like Split View before they hit mainline Firefox releases.

Unfortunately, I found it had some unfortunate video playback bugs for me on Linux, so I ended up bouncing back to Firefox. I'm also bit leery of relying on smaller projects with all the supply chain issues these days...

I think your analogy makes the opposite case better. A Rolls-Royce and a Pinto have the same real commute time because horsepower isn't the bottleneck, and they both get passengers from point to point. Sure the Pinto explodes a bit but much like the actuaries at Ford, you might well judge the cost of an occasional explosion to be a trade-off you can easily compensate for.

I would argue the process these days has more to do with the harness than the model, at least when we're talking about the SOTA options. Claude Code's biggest advantage isn't Opus, rather it's the shared knowledge the community has been building and sharing around using it effectively. Almost all of the out-of-the-box tutorials and skills and frameworks are build for Claude first, then Codex maybe.

I'd go further and say that CC and Codex are not even the best harnesses available, they just offer the most subsidized rate plans.

The AHSTF performed poorly because successive Albertan provincial governments slashed contributions to it, not because of the ghost of the NEP. It was established in 1976, then contributions were cut in half in 1983, and eliminated entirely in 1987. The NEP was gone by 1985.

What hurt Alberta was every cyclical crash in oil prices, and their steadfast refusal to implement additional revenue streams like a provincial sales tax while spending instead of saving their resource-boom surpluses.