ucha
Joined 14 years ago
Joined 14 years ago
Gruber made an effort to but doesn't fully understand how SynthID works. LLMs select the next word randomly from a set probability distribution, so there is no "best choice" unless you run the LLM with a temperature of 0 which would give out terrible results. Anthropic runs a non-distorting version of SynthID that doesn't change the probabilities of the underlying distribution of tokens. It makes the watermark less likely to work over smaller samples but preserves text quality. I encourage the mathematically inclined to read the paper:
If I flip a coin 56 times and it always falls on head, I can be pretty much certain that it's not a fair coin. I wouldn't need to flip it 1000 times. We are all someone else's "know-nothing hack"...
On twitter, some people say that some models perform better at night when there is a less demand which allows them to serve a non-quantized model.
Since the models are only available through API and there is no test to check which version of the model is served, it's hard to know what we're buying...
Say foreigners own 50% of US assets. When someone creates in the US a company ex nihilo and sells 10% of it to foreign investors, even though foreigners bought more US assets, this new wealth creation causes the % of foreign-owned US assets to diminish.
When foreign investors own US bonds, as inflation increases and the money supply increases, they end up owning less in real terms.
This doesn't account for investments that are limited in quantity such as real estate.
Also just because those are opposing forces, doesn't mean that foreign ownership wouldn't increase. As a matter of fact, when looking at the foreign ownership of US stocks, it has been steadily increasing.