tjculbertson
Joined 14 years ago
Joined 14 years ago
According the PG, the big ideas are not obvious at first, so how can you make good decisions on so many ideas in so little time? Probably YC is going to filter the apps through 1-2K YC founders or something and then have a score sheet, silos of expertise, etc. Basically selection by committee.
Though I like the concept, I am skeptical of the judging, as well as the sheer number of apps coming in worldwide - too much white noise which hurts the ability of the many US based startups trying to get a seat at the table.
Maybe this is also a way for YC to sort of draw a line in the sand between wantrepreneurs and the real deal. If you have an idea that keeps you up at night and you have decided to go all in, then this will give you a chance to prove it. no?
As far as the black swans, I could be wrong on this, but my understanding is that YC has maybe 10 partners all giving a grade on the apps coming in (apparently started this after they missed SendGrid). Im not sure if the 1400 alums initially flag or what, but even with the 10 partners grading, their odds of finding black swans get worse because black swans don't look like winners to most people - they are essentially counter intuitive, crazy ideas that don't appeal to the majority in the beginning (or maybe the founders are not Stanford drop outs or ex Googlers, which further sways the majority to give higher grade to what is more obvious. Thus pushing down more potential black swans below the interview cut off line.
So the more partners you have grading a particular startup, the more partners you have trying to cover their asses and not fuck up. So the safer choices will get more interviews - and safe choices don't usually result in black swans.
Not sure if I'm making sense here, but maybe the proof is in the pudding in that some of their biggest wins are Dropbox, Reddit, and Airbnb...all relatively early in YC batches when there were fewer partners making choices.
PG says they now have 3 silos, like 3 mini YC's reviewing. But if you have 1400 alums reviewing apps, by definition you are going to have scoring that is biased against finding black swans, regardless of how many silos you create.
As you say, the problem is too many apps and not enough time for a smaller amount of alums to review the apps.
One answer might be going to a rolling application process to avoid the washout that happens with a wave 40% bigger than you anticipated. And/or opening other offices, which is most likely in the works.
Its not an app, but check out the www.theleanstartup.com I like how its rich with info in just the right places, then it draws you in deeper. Thanks for the info.
May you rest in peace Faigy. I will pray for you and your family.