thesash
Joined 16 years ago
Karma
1,624
Submissions
285
Member since
Dec 8
Recent submissions
Comment · 7 years ago
“Become the person you want to be” might better capture the sentiment we tend to express with advice like this.
Comment · 9 years ago
Again, I'm not saying it's not possible I'm saying that it's going to be really, really hard and that saftey is the critical path to making this viable. I'm sure they are spending all of their time and resources devoted to improving saftey. I'm just pointing out the ridiculousness of focusing the PR on time savings and cost parity when the saftey deficit is currently massive.
Comment · 9 years ago
What am I missing that addresses the math?
Comment · 9 years ago
Loss rate for Space Shuttle program was 1.5%
135 missions, 2 lost.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a6611/us-space-shuttle...
Comment · 9 years ago
Are you motivated by money in this situation?
Comment · 9 years ago
Yes, totally, I get that they have a plan to make it safer -- my point is that a 20,000x increase in saftey is a massive leap, and that will be the limiting factor for this technology.
Comment · 9 years ago
The loss rate for manned space launches over the past 20 years has been 0.79%. What you're pointing out (only once every few decades) is a factor of the small number of manned launches per year. Actual loss rate is very high. 1/130 chance of loss.
Comment · 9 years ago
There are three things that would factor into my decision about whether to strap myself to a rocket rather than fly in a plane: time, cost, and safety.
Musk & SpaceX are talking a lot about time and cost, but safety is obviously a lot more important. Based on data I found on the internet (so it must be true!) the loss rate for rockets is 20k - 165k higher than the fatal crash rate for airplanes over the past 20 years.
Loss rate for manned rocket launches [1]: 0.79%
Loss rate for unmanned rocket launches [1]: 6.68%
Rate of airplane crashes with at least one fatality [2]: < 0.00004%
Even if SpaceX is able to make manned space flight 10x safer, I'm not sure I'd trade 19 of the 20 hours I spent traveling from LA to South Africa this summer for a 1/1,300 chance of blowing up during launch.
Comment · 9 years ago
This is actually a pretty good reason to move from group 3 to group 1. If your goal is to be part of group 3, but are unable to find an organization with a healthy culture, then there may be an opportunity to build your own.
Comment · 9 years ago
Facebook is doing some pretty interesting work in this area https://www.facebook.com/spaces
Comment · 12 years ago
Your privacy policy page returns a 404...
Comment · 12 years ago
What if you read that statement as "URLs are the basic interface of the web"?
Comment · 12 years ago
Precisely this. The examples in this article are all examples of innovation UI design, which is just a small, albeit highly visible edge of design.
That being said, startups like Uber, Waze, AirBnB, and Nest have all reached staggering levels of success by re-designing the entire stack of user experience in their respective markets. While the interfaces of these products are generally clean, they're not really the crux of the design innovation. Instead, the critical design innovation is elsewhere, in design of the systems, processes, technologies, and even business models that enable a magical end user experience.
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