sokoloff

Then parents who do morning routine or drop off have to come in an hour later, and their partner also wants to wake an hour later so they can stay up with the family an hour later, which means they don’t want to open the coffee shop until an hour later, so now the random commuter wants to start later so their coffee shop is open, and pretty soon it’s just as easy to say “ah screw it, we’re just going to change the clocks twice a year…”

I suspect the one who fires 80, does twice as much, and (maybe optionally) pays the 20 125% (as if they were 25) probably handily beats them both.

I see tons of straight-up fully AI videos being offered, whether it’s NotebookLM discussions of some topic, some nonsense reading of “accepted answers” to a tech query, or the maddening “here’s three ways old money acts”, I assume based on being interested in tech topics and retirement saving topics.

Taking the low end of “more than $100K” as being exactly $100K, 3.2M people earning $100K/yr each is $320B/yr and many earn way more than $100K, obviously.

I think either your $50B/yr in the US figure is low (would mean less than 1 in 6 dollars is earned in the US) or, I think more likely, your 3.2M figure is too high.

Where did you source the 3.2M figure?

It’s confirmation bias; you notice and remember the misses while mostly overlooking the hits.

I think it will create a lot of jobs (overall) that pay twice the median wage.

The fact that some of those jobs would have paid 3-5x the median wage in 2021 isn’t a scathing indictment of AI, even if it’s inconvenient for the slice of the world who could have made 4x the median wage and now only makes double it.

Then you must think it exists outside the human brain, right?

> it is helping people realize their ideas are stupid or their busywork doesn’t matter way faster.

While this is a possible explanation, it seems far more likely that people are finding more private/solo ways to pursue whatever their equivalent of “make the next Facebook” or “predict the stock market”.

I would be very surprised if the was a reduction in total duration of pursuit of these type of ideas. I think there’s just a reduction in them asking you as a dev to help.

I agree that it’s a tool to explore risk. I just think it’s more useful if you pull the likely universe of outcomes from the sequences of the past (sliding your retirement across multiple starting dates) more than worry about what happens if we get multiple -43% years in a row. There’s no realistic portfolio that will survive that, but also no realistic underlying economic model where that happens (or if it does, where what you have saved really matters).

“I just need to find another 12K of conventional memory to launch this game…”

I don’t think a pure Monte Carlo is as helpful as “replaying” past actual scenarios (or a hybrid of the two).

I don’t have reason to believe that 40 years in a row would all have randomly and independently chosen results from a distribution (pure Monte Carlo) as a better model than past actual results.

I think most everyone but you interprets “GPS radio” in GP’s post to mean a “radio capable of reviving the GPS signal” same as I would call the thing in the middle of car’s dash an AM/FM radio.

Who the hell designs a consumer scale that can’t work in a typical bathroom?

In what room did they possibly imagine their device would be used?

My point is that LLMs will soon be seen as “things you just have” not as "solely for the purpose of the interview".

I think that's probably already the case for the median software engineer and maybe even for the median software engineering candidate.

The relevant question is “how incidental/baseline to life is this expense?”

We require clothes for on-site interviews. We require phone service for phone screens and electricity and internet service for video interviews. We don’t pay gas/mileage for on-site interviews for local candidates. People think of those as incidental/de minimus expenses and we ignore them.

I think LLM subs are going to be just as baseline as mobile phone service very soon (far, far faster than mobile phone adoption was in the US or Europe).