I don’t think a pure Monte Carlo is as helpful as “replaying” past actual scenarios (or a hybrid of the two).
I don’t have reason to believe that 40 years in a row would all have randomly and independently chosen results from a distribution (pure Monte Carlo) as a better model than past actual results.
I don’t have reason to believe that 40 years in a row would all have randomly and independently chosen results from a distribution (pure Monte Carlo) as a better model than past actual results.