sgt101

It has been very interesting that although I experience huge productivity benefits and am hugely empowered to create new software with AI I simply do not see that reflected either in an improvement in throughput of software projects at work, or a step change in terms of better, faster, less buggy software from other companies.

There is a paradox here, I think that there is a lot of denial about it.

The big question is: who's going to get wiped, and what will that mean?

In 2008 the USA managed to export the shit assets generated by the mortgage boom , mostly to Europe. The consequence for the European economy and political setting have been quite sharp. For example it's hard to imagine a Brexit vote if the economic conditions of 2006 had persisted in the UK.

If the AI boom unwinds it's quite hard to see how the USA will export the pain this time. The issue is that the boom is tied to physical infrastructure in the USA and these assets will be stranded. Corporate bonds used to finance it are mostly owned by US pensions and 401k. We are likely to see many US insurance companies liquidated... and that will kill the annuities for many retirees.

The grid expansions that are being created in the USA will mean significant debts on US utility providers as well, if the data centres profitably come on line then this will get paid back. If not then American households are going to have to pay. Chip producers (Tiawan SK) will also get burned.

The USA will forfeit tech leadership, the US bond market will not permit Keynesian expansion. Basically the USA will be looking at a great depression. US hackernews friends need to find a cover story that stops their neighbours realising that they were part of the shit storm, and they also need to sharpen their camping skills and general outdoor hardiness. Alternatively -> try and get a French passport?

Oh yeah - you are right. It's unimaginable and basically... no one would survive. Sad to say...

My revelation on this was when my daughter got type 1 diabetes. If the world goes south, even if I manage to do everything and "win", she's dead in six months. Of course, since then I've realised that the "do everything and "win"" thing is also stupid, no one is going to be able to "make it" a handful will luck out and mangage somehow.. but it won't be because of prepping.

On the other hand, if there's a blip - like a cyber attack, or a regional war, a solar flare, bad volcano, or a mega storm. then preps might make things more comfortable until the state gets back up and running.

I have found that my M5pro gets unstable when I really stress it's memory use. I think that with 8 or 16GB you are going to hit this quite a lot more than I do with 48GB.

There are quite a few options that people lean on.

- Traditional: a generator. Problem is that you need a fuel tank, but if you are aiming to get through a couple of weeks then that's possible.

- Grid attached battery backup: good because in some places (like the UK) electricity at night is much cheaper than electricity during the day... so you can charge the battery and then save money and get payback on your installation. Bonus point is that if there is a grid outage then you have power, for a day or so if you are careful.

- Grid attached with solar/wind: as above, but you can charge independently from the sun/wind... obviously in some places (like the UK) this has limited utility because the sun don't shine (like today), and the wind can be annoying and difficult as a power source (gearboxes, noise, aesthetics). Can cost in though - because of summer power my panels pay back in 11 years. Small wind turbines seem to be getting more practical but I am no expert.

- Non grid battery backup. These also come with solar now, so you can recharge if it's sunny. These are cheap (<~£1000), hold maybe 2Kw and so can power some devices while the grid is off for a little while. Definitely you can run your phones and computers for a few extra cycles, but people are often looking to run freezers or fridges with medicine with these.

Another thing that folks like to have is grid independent heating / cooking via a woodstove. This is frowned on in urban areas and by eco people but I live in the country and have done my reading and while other people will pop up and decry particulates to be honest I'm keeping my burner so my family will be warm and fed for as long as our food lasts or we don't get looted by the neighbours.

So: WAR!

There is an agreed legal mechanism for distributing this responsibility - limited liability. Now, we might not like this, but it is what our society came to (it could be undone, but it hasn't been). AI models do not fall into this chain of liability any more than guns do (IMO). So the output should be:

"Anthropic employee John Smith [killed the children with the gun||launched a cyber attack] because he was ordered to by his superior and [has all the blame because such orders are null || we agree that Anthropic can order children to be killed]"

I don't think this is right.

Who knows what Altman wants? It's moot what individual motivations are as he is definitely fronting for investors who have significant power in the business.

Public money comes with legal fiduciary duties.

The reason to IPO is to get private money out, materialise the whole valuation.

I have sat in so many meetings looking at shit generated by claude while someone grins and goons in front of it, and I just realise... 99.9% of people in corporate life neither care about the things they produce or present, or can tell a carefully created document from any old shit.

I dunno man, I use LLM's to review things before I send them in and I often feel like I've been handcuffed to a chair, had a bright light shone in my face and had to account for all the mistakes I've made in my life.

They can be brutal.

Yet again: we're making the Russians do it?

I think all of them do, but the alternative is to let the Russians do what they want and that ends worse for all of us.