seigenblues
Joined 17 years ago
Joined 17 years ago
That last paragraph seems far more damning of the author than of Mason -- they're so disappointed that he doesn't have any obvious status symbols and he's riding off on a moped.
Good for him, and shame on them, for equating consumption with success.
(he should really wear a helmet, though!)
I remember printing out the whole listing on our dot-matrix printer and unfolding it across the living room. I might've been 9 or 10.
BTW, shallow thought wasn't meant as a derogative. It's what we monkeys do best, after all. It'll result in a different profile of swings, hits, & misses than other approaches, that's all.
(also, the irony that the new yorker article also suggests how we're really good at seeing the faults in others thought processes but not in our own is hi-larious)
Best of luck!
I was writing a long post about how we think we're really good at detecting "important signals" like if someone's lying, but that we're actually terrible at it. But the new yorker article that was frontpaging yesterday should pretty much explain it, even though Jonah Lehrer is a bit smug for my tastes ;)
TL;DR- the OP sounds like a very shallow-thinking VC who's blissfully unaware of his own biases. It might work out ok for him -- these biases usually work most of the time, and that's why we have them -- but it will probably fail in some very crucial instances where a more thorough, data-driven approach might have worked better. In fact, that may be precisely how the great VC's are differentiated from the merely ok, but that's a different story...
(link: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/frontal-cortex/2012/06...)
I think it's still worthwhile to think about systems of people in terms of their aggregate actions as well as in terms of each being an individual.
The comment below at this time ('survivorship bias') is also correct, but only if it's interpreted as a touching anecdote rather than as crucial customer-behavior information for his market segment. Understanding the dynamics of how your customers make their purchasing decisions seems like a better lesson to take from this.
(Not the same for every product, either! E.g., my being passionate about Cheerios does nothing for General Mills, really...)
The author of Pachi has a paper detailing the major algorithm advancement beyond Monte-Carlo game simulations, which is sharing information across simulations in a way that is totally nonintuitive to me.
For me, a 3d/4d KGS go player, this is all very interesting stuff!
"Instead the question ... taps something deeper and more
closely held. ... If I know what matters to them, I can
right away tell if the same things matter to ...
the organization at large."
In other words: "expose something tender and honest, so that we can exploit it as directly as possible."
I do software & maths at Skyline Innovations, building tools to support distributed generation & energy efficiency. I.e., measuring atoms with bits.