sapphireblue
Joined 10 years ago
Joined 10 years ago
I see the opposite picture when these discussions pop up: everybody tries to find a downside in increased lifespan, be it personal or social. It looks like a pretty obvious defense of status-quo to me.
What is really-really sad and what really bothers me is that this attitude is so prevalent in the modern West, when the West is the only society on planet Earth that has knowledge and resources to make some version of life extension happen. Other parts of the world are de-facto firmly in the survival mode.
There was an ambitious NASA project 35 years ago: a self-replicating lunar factory http://www.nss.org/settlement/moon/library/1982-SelfReplicat... . The engineers tried to design a manufacturing system aiming for almost full parts closure. The project was too ambitious (e.g. it looked optimistically at AI's capabilities), and didn't went past design study stage then;
But maybe now, 35 years later, the technology is good enough for something similar to be viable?
I stumbled upon this startup https://www.clarius.me/ which provides an existence proof for a decent ultraportable stethoscope-like ultrasound machine.
Any thoughts on this? How does it change the arguments from these earlier threads?
Also there is a turing-complete implementation of OOPS, a search procedure related to AIXI that can solve toy problems, programmed by none other than Jurgen Schmidthuber 10 years ago [2]
Even more important: there is a breadth of RL theory built around MDPs and POMDPs. There are asymptotical, convergence, bounded regret, on-policy/off-policy results, etc. Modern practical Deep RL agents (the ones DeepMind is researching) are developed on the same RL theory and inherit many of these results.
From my POV it looks unfavorable to researchers that produced these results over decades of work when the comment's grandfather (and grand-grandfather) write that there is no definition and theory about AI, and that AI is like alchemy.
1. https://www.jair.org/media/3125/live-3125-5397-jair.pdf 2. http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/oops.html
While Gwern has already mentioned Reinforcement Learning, UAI is a less known (but even more rigorous and well received) mathematical theory of general AI that arose from Marcus Hutter work [1].
My point here is how can one say that there is no definition of AI when there are several precise mathematical definitions available with many theorems proven about them?
So, there certainly is a lot of room left for performance improvements!
1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05763 2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.02779
Finally there is a trend of using recurrent neural network as a top component of the Q-network. Perhaps we will see even more sophisticated RNNs like DNC and Recurrent Entity Networks applied here. Also we'll see meta-reinforcement learning applied to a curriculum of environments.
Also note that interpreters have their place in safety-critical aerospace as well: some satellites run Forth.
Who knows, maybe there is no real need for a dozen of global social media companies that provide roughly similar features to the same users?
The agent can, like any software, be snapshotted, saved, loaded and copied, creating as many identical agents as needed (given hardware, of course). Agents can and will be trained to perform various tasks, and their snapshots will be sold or made available for download over the Internet.
By saying that your main concerns are technological unemployment of white-collar demographic and increased state surveillance you make it clear that your views reflect that of an upper-middle class western person. On the global scale affluent westerners are a minority.
So, How would such an agent be used to actually improve society? Consider universally valued, life-critical services: healthcare and education. Only the western people have access to high-quality medicine and education due to a whole lot of reasons (global economical inequality, a very long and hard path to become a doctor or a professor, a very long time needed to establish the necessary social institutions, lack of social stability outside the west, ...).
If we had a general RL agent we could train several variants of it to perform high-quality work in the fields of Diagnosis, Radiology, Paediatry etc. We could also train artificial education agents for many subjects. The training needs to only be done once. Given sufficiently powerful mass-produced hardware (smartphone SoCs with Nervana-like NN accelerators?) these agents could be given almost for free to billions of people that wouldn't be able to afford such services in any point of their lives otherwise.
How could one be against giving essential high quality services to every human with a smartphone?
And if even that is not enough to justify the utility of RL agents, then consider how much progress in molecular biology and medicine could be done if thousands of agents trained to do life science research worked around the clock to push the state of art further. How many people with debilitating diseases could be cured by such an effort?
And then consider how we could make our currently-crumbling cities and infrastructure permanently well-attended by RL agents inside simple robots. The world certainly could use more smart attention everywhere. I guess the quality of life in such a world would be remarkably different.
If I were the author I'd choose some social media unicorn or an ad network as an example of inherent misallocation of human talent.
It is not impossible. There is a combination of a special neural network architecture and strong sparsity-inducing regularization that makes it possible to learn equations from dynamics dataset: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=BkgRp0FYe