rossdavidh

Decent advice, but I noted that every single thing he suggested (i.e. "make sure you..." or "look out for...") is going to be very difficult, well nigh impossible for any medium to large coding organization to do. I wonder if LLMs will end up empowering individual programmers, but cursing large dev teams to more rapid decay.

I would say that KK's "The bulk of AI will be special purpose software brains" has turned out closer to the truth than "The Bitter Lesson" has. LLM's do not drive cars, or vice versa. Stockfish still beats the newest, largest LLM at chess. Etc. Most of the truly productive "AI" is customized for a specific purpose, or class of purposes anyway.

I was recently introduced to the term "house-shy", for people who don't want anyone else seeing what the inside of their house looks like. I have a few friends who are "house-shy", that I for one reason or another have seen the houses of (often years after becoming friends with them). I think the percentage of Americans who are hoarders or borderline, is underestimated.

If anyone reading this has a job (plumber, A/C repair, etc.) that regularly gives them a glimpse of the inside of people's homes, I would be curious as to their thoughts on this.

"The Machine Stops"

Overthinking it. "You have money and need to seem AIish for the stock market, we want real money". You notice they don't do this deal in tokens, they do it in fiat currency.

One unexpected "benefit" of LLMs is that it is training us all to be even better at recognizing "you don't even know what you mean by that, do you?"

Less conspiratorially; they may care a lot less about it than ADO, and not give it the priority/resources they would otherwise. Neglect can often do the work of malign intention.

They don't lie, because they don't ever have an understanding of truth vs any other language that sounds good.

They don't cheat, because they can for example tell you the complete rules of chess, but don't know how to play chess without breaking those rules. They can recite rules, but they don't know what they are.

They don't steal, because they don't understand ownership.

In other words, they aren't intelligent. They're just algorithms. The flaw is in thinking that they think.

I've known people who did get inquiries from the IRS; they just had to provide a lot of evidence that they were actually going to markets to try to sell their stuff, actually making stuff to sell, etc. Generally, the IRS are more interested in people who make a bunch of income, then have a fake business to charge expenses against. Plus, there are many cosplaying businesses far too large to ever worry about the IRS accusing them of being a hobby.

This race was never going to get to AGI, at Google or anywhere else, and it appears that Google knows that.