rmb177

Define "net loss to the society." Society is just a group of individuals. If my counter-party was a democratic aide hedging that they wouldn't have a job come January, was it a real loss for them? The money I've earned on prediction markets has certainly allowed me to spend more money in the economy. What if a trump supporter watching the market saw what a longshot it was and decided not to go to the Capitol on January 6th?

I realize I'm an N of 1, but I've participated in prediction markets since 2019 and am just above 5 figures in profit. Not life-changing money, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

I'm pretty conservative in my predictions and just think there is a lot of free money on these sites. Maybe that just supports the sentiments of this article and most of the negative comments on this post.

There are certainly cases where I got run over by the steamroller picking up nickels, but in general that's few and far between. A good example is getting trump losing the 2020 election at 90% after the election in November. If you find those types of markets and compound the earnings it's a pretty nice savings account.

I've also been burned by insider trading and vague rule interpretations but at this point, you chalk it up to the nature of prediction markets. I now try to stay away from markets that are more manipulative (e.g. mention markets).

I don't understand the hostility to prediction markets. There are definitely hedging opportunities and we're all adults.

Spelunker, M.U.L.E, Seven Cities of Gold, Up N Down, Moon Patrol, Raid on Bungeling Bay, Blue Max

I could go on and on...

I've been using Podcast Addict for several years now and haven't had any complaints.

I worked in a hat factory as a summer HS/college break job. I stood at the end of a table and inspected the initial wool cut outs that would eventually be formed into the hats. The hats would go through a machine that sprayed them with god knows what chemicals, someone would capture them out of the machine and place them on the table, while the rest of us at the station would turn them inside out and hold them up to the light to look for flaws (thin spots).

I would look at the clock every 45 minutes to see that only 10 minutes had passed.

I was one of the lucky ones though because every hour or so, I got to move to another station to hang newly-formed hats from another station on a drying rack that would take them to the next floor.

I came across this article after Googling the Jefferson quote cited at the beginning of the article: “How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened.” I heard that quote this morning in a podcast interview with Ken Burns and it hit real close. I thought it might be helpful to any other worriers out there as we start the new year.

Toastmasters might be a good option.

I've been doing work in Salesforce for the last 7 years in two different positions. Both are smaller companies in the Midwest (smallish city of ~100k if you include neighboring towns). I know of at least one other company in the area that is built on Salesforce. It's not the most exciting work in the world, but it's work that I know is providing value for the companies and people I work for/with.

Pros: Salesforce abstracts a lot of the DevOps/database work that I don't have a lot of experience with and lets me focus on building the applications we need. Much of my current work is building out Lightning Web components, which is your basic JavaScript web development work built on top of some pre-existing components provided by Salesforce. There is a ton of documentation and it's easy to pick up on things you need to learn.

Cons: Salesforce has a lot of quirks to it that you'll become familiar with as you get into it. Build/test/deploy cycles are slower than normal, but they are working on tools to make that experience better. In some ways, their focus on no-code is nice and it's really easy to get simple things done. In some cases though, it feels easier just to write code to get things done, especially if you suspect the feature you're working on will get more complicated over time.

All in all I'm not sorry for getting into this space. I've had enough variety in my jobs that I've done some work outside of Salesforce and I don't feel pigeon-holed. The Salesforce ecosystem seems to be growing and their is a lot of work available. I'm in my mid-40s so if I can get steady work over the next 10-15 years with decent pay, I'll be more than happy continuing work in this space.

FYI: I haven't bothered with any paid certifications though I do complete Trailheads when I need to learn something new as a way to both learn things and provide a signal to potential future employers that I know what I'm doing.

Every morning my dog wakes up full of energy, rushes down the stairs, and anxiously awaits as I get ready to take her on our morning walk. It's a good reminder on how to approach each day, even when I wake up tired and grumpy. Her days are all the same, walk, eat, nap, eat, walk, nap, eat, walk, sleep. If she can be excited about that, I can certainly appreciate the variety I get in my days and make the best of them.

I have always struggled with this issue as it feels like you're abandoning your team and leaving them hanging. Especially when you like and respect your teammates. At my last job I was the sole developer in the company and responsible for a major project for our biggest client. My job previous to that I worked as a consultant and was the PM/main developer on two different projects. The guilt I felt in leaving was real and was something I struggled with to even accept the new offers.

That being said you have to do what is in your best interest. In both cases, the move I made was just what I needed at the time and improved my outlook and passion moving forward. To make up for some of the guilt, I worked like hell the last two weeks, cleaning up as many outstanding issues as I could and documenting everything I could. I also made myself available for questions after I left, though you want to be careful about committing too much time there.

And guess what...in both situations the company moved on and eventually got past the initial hurdles of replacing me. It's likely the same will happen in your case and you'll realize you spent way too much time worrying about something that should you decide to leave, is no longer your responsibility.