randcraw
Joined 14 years ago
Joined 14 years ago
It's at the forebrain of every executive in America that LLMs imbued with RLHF are on the cusp of replacing every job they can imagine, from robot chauffeurs to carpenters to surgeons. But as this paper suggests, the integration of generally capable vision systems with basic tool handling that will be needed to replace the specific skills essential to most human jobs -- especially using only today's frontier models -- still takes us unforeseeably and undeniably far into the realm of sheer fantasy.
Clinically, I'd imagine that choosing the right final diagnosis with relatively low certainty is often less useful than reporting the level of confidence (high or low) of each candidate diagnosis. A set of plausibles is surely better than a single wrong ID.
Clinical tests, especially when used by nonspecialists, are useful not only as diagnostic endpoints. Often they're essential to separate plausible diagnoses from implausible. If a CNN can rule out all outcomes but one with high certainty, that's nothing to sneeze at.
And if it could also _explain_ why the certainty of each candidate was high (or low) -- as non-LLMs often can do better than LLMs. That should have value too, especially in establishing an audit trail to defend the chosen diagnosis.
I think mathematicians aren't bemoaning their lost sunk costs. They're now aware that they may never again have the joy of being the first to pull up the edge of the tarp of ignorance and see the raw truth beneath _for the first time_. Their voyages of discovery, which give life meaning, may never leave dry dock again.
Still disgusted?
Just finished Jill Lepore's "The Rise and Fall of the Artificial State" -- a history of the popular fascination (esp. among idealistic tech types) for ending human-based governance and replacing it with computer automation (esp. via AI). I appreciated her coverage of the rise more than her case for the fall.
For every fact you learn there is a necessary context and numerous exceptions when it's applied in other contexts. If you expect AI to spit all relevant facts at you every time you're clueless, you will have no idea when AI is wrong or lying. You will have to trust everything AI (or its owner) tells you.
Oxalates are present in tea too, though not coffee, IIRC.
Classic literature was written in an era when readers had more patience and fewer distractions than today. But classic short stories should offer the best of those, IMO, better-written times: more thoughtful exposition in fewer words.
Professionally, I helped develop drugs by learning from biomedical images at a large pharma outside Philly. Personally, I [used to] bike to work and [still] motorcycle.
Recently I'm reacquiring trumpet and recorder skills while [very slowly] learning piano and folk guitar. Nonfiction is my preferred sustenance, while I try to write with elan and whimsy. And I still love driving twisty roads.