ralfd

What happened in 2018?

How did you look up your QCS?

I want to point out that they set up an EU and US multiplayer server! Nice touch.

I agree with you. I read it cover to cover at the time and felt like a smart ass ("AksHuALLy renewables can't work alone!"), then wondered a few years ago how his calculations turned out in the real world.

1. Sad that he died from cancer

2. Noticed he compared primary energy and felt stupid for missing that

This is a difficult problem, because subs can also depend on ban-hammer-happy moderation.

There is (2 minutes before Flight 14, maybe it changes in 10 minutes) low chance, but not no chance.

> This would be an ambitious but achievable cadence for Starship, particularly if the tanker Starships didn’t have to be reusable, and could be made without a heat shield or control surfaces. Just how much time SpaceX has to reach this cadence is an interesting question, since right now NASA and SpaceX are locked in a game of chicken around who can commit to the least realistic timeline. But it probably has to get in gear by early 2027.

This is good evaluation. A launch every week in 2027 is ambitious, but not impossible.

> and sucked in enormous subsidies to that end.

Starlink didn't get any subsidies. There were reports in summer about them potentially getting 600 Mio (btw the broadband program is 40 billion heavy) and I can't find sources that SpaceX got any program founding yet.

Quoting his post:

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Context: I have 30 years of experience with software dev, 20 years with game dev tools, 10 years with Unity. I own a studio that develops simulators and training applications for industry. "Serious games" as they call it in Europe.

For years I scoffed at AI coding. I would periodically try it, only to find that it was more hassle then it was worth. The hand holding and bug fixing was more work than doing it myself. This all changed about 4-5 months ago, and about a month ago we all started using Unity CLI.

Here are my insights in no particular order:

1. Our dev speed has ~5x almost overnight

2. Quality has not gone down because we're all experienced devs and we're careful how we use AI and we don't let it make decisions regarding project structure or design patterns. However, I'm seeing less and less glaring mistakes made by the AI.

3.We're still reviewing generated code but I suspect not for long, the code is better than what most devs I know can write, at 20x the speed. The temptation to just push and move on is huge and irresistible.

4.There is no joy or sense of accomplishment. No pride in making something clever or quickly, and all progress is associated with the AI and not with you.

5.The market is dead. Nobody has money to spend. We're still working but leads have dropped off a cliff.

6.There is no going back. If we stop using AI we'll be out of business in a month.

7.There is no space for junior devs. I honestly don't know how to incorporate a junior into a team anymore (which is something I used to do for decades). Every time we tried they just become a meat proxy for AI while learning nothing, and getting in the way.

8.Everything regarding managing a team and a project has changed, and nobody knows how to do it anymore. I lost the ability to correctly estimate work required for a task, for example.

9.Everyone hates this. Most of devs my age are planning early retirement and are just waiting to be laid off.

10.People that use AI for coding don't learn anything. To understand code you have to write it, and nobody is writing it. Maybe understanding and reading code will become obsolete soon? I don't know.

11.Everyone I asked feel they are becoming dumber and losing their focus. I know I am.

I hope this is a pendulum and it will swing back at some point, because right now it feels like a software apocalypse.

Lots of suboptimal play though in base setup. I wonder if a top player could beat Pluto if they could train against this bot and find weaknesses.

Edit: The bot also maphacks

> but unless someone--a human--can verify and understand it

Why though a human? Mathematical proofs are very ivory-towery, but if OpenAI would solve a subkind of Cancer, without mortal humans understanding, cancer is still be healed.