putzdown

“Although similar in size, the thylacine skull (right) proved larger than a gray wolf skull.” This is the caption under an image in which the rightmost skull is decisively smaller than the other two. I think there’s an error. Perhaps the central skull is the one belonging to the Tasmanian tiger, not the one on the right?

This is a great article, and I've never seen the problem explained better. The solution doesn't make sense, though, and this is almost but not quite obvious in the article by virtue of how well it has stated the problem. The problem with basic income is that it provides people with cash but does not change the underlying supply-demand system. To get the lokal (the room) to work you needed more than cash: you needed a desire for teens to be happy and engaged, the will to help them get there, a sense of what might help them, leadership to set it up, attract them, and keep it going, and then, yes, money to pay rent. If all you provide is the money, you will get people spending more money on the usual things the economy "sees": phones, video games, amusing t-shirts. What you have around the lokal in the story is actually not merely basic income fed into the existing economy: you actually have a separate economy. The separate economy works differently because it sees differently, it has different demands, different desires. The society as a whole (as embodied here by the government, thankfully—though not all governments are predictably good-willed in this way) wants the teens to thrive, to provide for them, to pay for them, to guide them with modest leadership. Though individuals, and the regular markets, cannot think about the teenagers—they don't have the bandwidth, they don't have the time, they have diffusion of responsibility, etc—the society can pool its interests and act upon its collective interest through the market. This may not be the only way to "cut across" the market, to do collectively what no set of individuals will do, but it's one way. So we definitely want to solve the problem: we want to organize, lead, preserve, and fund things that are of collective value but that the market cannot see. Giving individuals a basic income, however, doesn't accomplish that. I wish it did, but it doesn't. It puts the money into the usual demand centers—individuals needing to pay rent and transportation costs and go on dates and so forth—that live within the "blind" economy.

One of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument. But no. He jumps. He leaps. He circles back. If the situation were really "Gosh why can't you see it?!"-clear, his explanation of the situation would be clear. It isn't, because it isn't.

You know, anyone can say things. Rants are cheap. What we need, though, is critical thinking. Not just, “Look, three stars are in alignment; it’s the constellation Triangulum.” This article expresses many opinions. It draws lines between stars. But many other lines could be drawn. Maybe we should believe this analysis because it sounds passionate? “He uses cuss words! He must be invested! He talks about CEOs! He must be an insider!” No. Anyone can point out obvious, insignificant data and rant about it. We need facts and logical arguments, not rants. Less of this.

The moves from “the subscription model for AI isn’t working given these parameters” to “a subscription model for AI can never work” to “the model was deliberately deceptive” to “it’s a fucking ripoff” is not logical. AI companies are feeling the need to get hold of spiraling costs by increasing prices and limitations. Inference hasn’t gotten cheap enough fast enough, and for some reason they feel they can’t wait longer. That doesn’t mean a subscription service can’t work: only that it will be expensive, maybe vastly so, and will need tiers based on usage with some fluidity for users to move between tiers in a given month. The model is something like HP’s “instant ink” service. Sure, there’s a question whether the moves companies are making now are worth the cost in the eyes of customers. But that’s a question of economics and timing, not a fundamental blow to monthly subscriptions as a model. The article doesn’t deal with these considerations fairly. It’s too much in the direction of a rant, with conspiracy theories thrown in.

Thank you. But the Y test still seems sufficient. Every criterion will have false positives and negatives. With the Y test the false negative (you present as a woman but have a Y chromosome) is rare and the vast majority of cases are handled well. If you have this condition you must compete against men (given the Y chromosome test rule) or not compete. If you’re dying to be in the Olympics as a woman but have the Y chromosome, you’re just out of luck. Not everyone can be a concert pianist either. No rule makes things wonderful for 100% of humans. The Y test gets very close.

Why is checking for a Y chromosome not sufficient? This does not seem to me like an arbitrary definition. What am I missing?

What's the story with the Avro C102 (per law 20)? What's the connection with "A bad design with a good presentation is doomed eventually. A good design with a bad presentation is doomed immediately"? I'm intrigued.

This is an area that could really use good research, but this study looks badly designed and completely dismissible. I hope it’s true that video game playing has some mental health benefits, and I wouldn’t be surprised. You’re not going to determine whether it does by asking a bunch of people how they feel about Mario and Yoshi.

A vibecoded (but programmer-supervised and not sloppy) retirement savings forecaster similar to what you see financial advisors using, but you're in control. Could be useful? Feedback please.