pizu

It's a form of lottery. Rewarding one in a million. Keeps the machine churning.

Wow, HN has finally broke Google! This is what Google Docs message says: "Wow, this file is really popular! Some tools might be unavailable until the crowd clears.Try again Dismiss "

Perhaps, this shows how people perceive the world:

Internet = browsing web pages on PC/Mac (using a web browser)

FB = apps/software on phones and tablets (or in a web browser, occasionally)

FB is then much more a standalone/native app than a website.

"Because his actions have had serious consequences for our national security.." Errr, really? What exactly are those consequences? Not a single person was hurt or injured as a result of the revelations. On the other hand, American people have learned a lot about their Government spying on their own citizens.

The article defines the overconfidence as a belief in an outcome despite what reasonable past statistics tell us. "the kind of optimism that leads governments to believe that wars are quickly winnable and capital projects will come in on budget despite statistics predicting exactly the opposite." On a second thought, project planning and making plans in general that involve duration, cost, etc, and "asking a girl out" or "asking for a pay rise" are very different things and I'd prefer not to conflate the two.

You might be able to generate some stats on what % of girls that are asked out (in some particular circumstantce e.g. at a bar in Kentucky, etc) agree or how many pay rises are approved. You can then talk about over- or under- confidence if expectations of the outcome deviate largely from these stats. How much is too little or much? Who knows.

I think you already disarm your own argument when you say: "things like actually being able to talk to that girl, ask for that raise, close that sale, take down that oppressor...these things benefit tremendously from irrational confidence". Exactly. You don't need to be overconfident to "talk down (sic!) to a girl" or ask for a raise, but about "just" confidence. Case closed.

SOFTWARE IS NEVER FINISHED. JUST LIKE FASHION IS NEVER FINISHED ;)

OMG everyone buy bitcoin!

also, "pre-birth" and "pre-kindergarten"

That picture is from the 1000 USD banknote...

"She found, however, that she could study them by following them around and observing their daily activities and interactions." Are you f$%"£ kidding me? This sounds like such a revelation but is so bleeding obvious. Of course you have to observe people in their natural habitat, WATCHING them, not just sending them a SurveyMonkey survey or asking a buncha questions. C'mon people. Get real!

Why nobody listens to these songs? Either crappy songs or failed marketing. Or both.

What a great reminder of a great book. And a science writer that rightly focused on the human side than the tech. Thanks for this.