orange_joe

i’m pretty skeptical of this analysis because it (by default) hides the effect of welfare and advocates for a wealth tax. Hiding the existing social safety net in order to advocate for taxes feels very propagandistic.

I think it looks like the labs front running everyone’s work, freeloading on the last bits of human intelligence to ensure their owners a place as our masters.

if spotify employs an american and they become more experienced over their tenure were american resources extracted? human capital tends to get better with experience, particularly when dealing with high quality foreign management.

interesting. Manus is nominally a Singapore based company and should be immune to these actions. Tiktok argued that it was headquartered in Singapore with a Singaporean CEO. breaking singapore’s fig leaf might prove problematic in the long run.

I'm not being prescriptive, just observing the likely consequences of gendered policy.

I am wondering if the affected men will demand preferential treatment as a consequence of service. Women currently benefit from disproportionate employment in the social safety net, affirmative action in German government hiring, etc. I would imagine that this would be essentially offensive to the men who are required to stay in the country, or face (potential future) conscription. I suspect the demands of European governments will increase as countries continue to age.

How does feminism survive if this becomes the norm? If young men feel like they're expected to give more to their society it's natural to expect renumeration financial, socially or politically. Nordic countries don't seem to have this problem, but their conscription laws are quite relaxed compared to what the future will likely hold. A declining youth population almost certainly means greater youth repression (higher taxes for pensions, conscription, etc.)

the modern world emerged of rationalism, the end goal of AI & automated thinking is necessarily at odds with rationalism (systems will be increasingly illegible as AI accelerates progress). I believe this will fundamentally unmoor our civilization

America clearly has an EV industry (Tesla, Rivian) but its adoption is pretty limited by infrastructure.

This doesn't really pay attention to token costs. If I'm making a series of statically dependent calls I want to avoid blowing up the context with information on the intermediary states. Also, I don't really want to send my users skill.md files on how to do X,Y & Z.

contra-pessimism: My parents run a small organic farm on the east coast — (greenhouses, not row crops) and they extensively use chatgpt for decision making They obviously haven’t built out agentic data gathering, but can easily prompt it with the required information. they’re quite happy with everything.

I’m guessing this will screw up in assuming infinite labor & equipment liqudity.

I don't know how to really accept the fact that America is becoming a dramatically more corrupt country at the population and political level. It reminds me of growing up in the third world where the line between cop & bandit was blurred.