nmaley
Joined 9 years ago
Joined 9 years ago
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.
Using carefully written specs, I've found Claude will produce flawless code for quite complex problems. It's magic.
LeCun is right to say that continuous self supervised (hierarchical) learning is the next frontier, and that means we need world models. I'm not sure that JEPA is the right tool to get us past that frontier, but at the moment there are not a lot of alternatives on the table.
It's also a huge barrier to adoption by mainstream businesses, which are used to working to unambiguous business rules. If it's tricky for us developers it's even more frustrating to end users. Very often they end up just saying, f* it, this is too hard.
I also use LLM's to write code and for that they are a huge productivity boon. Just remember to test! But I'm noticing that use of LLM's in mainstream business applications lags the hype quite a bit. They are touted as panaceas, but like any IT technology they are tricky to implement. People always underestimate the effort necessary to get a real return, even with deterministic apps. With indeterministic apps it's an even bigger problem.
Fast forward a few years and the guy flees the US after being charged with securities fraud. Spends the rest of his life living on his millions in a foreign country with no US extradition treaty.
I understand your current systems are holding you back and there may be no appetite to get a bunch of expensive consultants in to answer all these questions. But just hiring a bunch of devs without a plan for what you want them to do is a recipe for disaster.
The cognitive load to fact check everything is too great, so we decide which sources we think are reliable and just accept them. The solution is not to disbelieve everything you are told, but to accept that some of the facts you have not checked might be wrong, and be prepared to re-evaluate when contrary evidence appears.
Another guy I know started his career as a cabinetmaker but dropped out of his apprenticeship to go into software development. He didn't have what it takes for that and now he is unemployed.
Moral of these stories? Everything depends on your abilities and interests. Hitting the books and going after a white collar job works well if you're smart. But there a lot of frustrated white collar workers out there doing meaningless work or (with AI at the moment) getting laid off. Many would be better off doing a trade.