nhp_fermi

I don’t buy the framing that this is some grand “debtor’s strategy.” Trump’s relationship to debt has been mostly survival — bankruptcies, restructurings, junk bonds — not some masterclass in macroeconomics. The US dollar isn’t a casino balance sheet; it’s a global reserve currency with network effects and political commitments that outlast any single administration.

Yes, inflation erodes debt, but it also destroys credibility — and once you lose that, financing costs explode. The real danger isn’t Trump’s supposed genius, it’s that treating the dollar like a personal put option underestimates how fragile global trust actually is.

Plus the guys super into gold, I feel like he would prefer a strong dollar

If the world continues to become more protectionist, does the USD need to be replaced by a single global reserve? It could just be a multi-polar period with a bunch of regional reserve currencies. Global liquidity backed by a single reserve isn't required if WTO dies, and trade is negotiated bilaterally

Three projections that signal the dollar's demise: 1. The Fed has lost control of the Yield Curve, 2. One term presidents will become the norm, and fail to cut deficit spending 3. Powell will be the last multi-term Fed chair, and monetary policy will begin to oscillate in lock step with fiscal policy.