neural_thing

Joined 9 years ago

Karma
1,143
Submissions
284
Member since
Mar 27
s dot alexashenko at gmail dot com

@salexashenko

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Recent submissions

Comment · 16 days ago
It's not about sales numbers, it's about putting rockets in cars, so that SpaceX can acquire Tesla and give Musk supervoting shares
Comment · 29 days ago
Have you ever been to truly starving places? Not taking about poor countries, literally starving places, like, Syria in WWI. Where if you don't steal from your neighbor, your kids will die of hunger. That's the kind of environment where compassion is a luxury. A lot of China was like that _even if for a short time_ in the last century. That leaves deep scars.

Not a lot of the world is like that today, you'd have to go pretty far out of anything considered tourist-friendly to see conditions similar to Mao-induced famine.

Comment · 1 month ago
They're a potential pure play
Comment · 3 months ago
Comment · 4 months ago
And U-6 is lower than e.g it has been in ALL of 2008-2018? Generally pretty close to historic lows. Not sure what extra information it provides
Comment · 4 months ago
You can pay anthropic enough money to be part of project glasswing. Some people here just can't accept that there's something coding related they can't afford.
Comment · 4 months ago
I pay United airlines the price of an economy ticket, it's so unfair I don't get to fly in first class
Comment · 5 months ago
OK so let's say build out this year is $900b. Depreciated over, IDK, 6 years (mix of 3 year GPUs and 20 year buildings)? That's $150B a year, but you want the investment to be profitable, so let's call it $250B a year.

That seems... Pretty reasonable? Like Anthropic is at $45B annual revenue, let's say they enter next year with $100B annual revenue? Let's say they have 30% gross margins (no idea), so $70B goes to data center owners/operators. That's one company doing roughly 1/3rd of what's required to pay the investments off. And you have Ant+OAI+GDM+Internal AI at GOOGL/META/etc.+all the servers for open models.

I'm sure there's a world where you can paint a picture that requires $5-10T but that would require capex increasing significantly NEXT year. And the cloud companies won't do that unless revenue keeps growing.

Comment · 7 months ago
I've structured a pre IPO bet:

Long RONB (holds a ton of spacex), short ARKK (similar composition sans SpaceX) - or if you have a lot of time, you can short non-spacex RONB holdings. Planning to sell just after the IPO

Comment · 7 months ago
Eventually HN is going to need to charge people $1 to post, just for spam filtering. Maybe donate the money to open source or something.
Comment · 8 months ago
Does it matter? How much power does it take to run duolingo? How much power did it take to manufacture 300000 Teslas? Everything takes power
Comment · 8 months ago
People are REALLY bad at distinguishing voices. For every AI voice, there are tons of people claiming it's theirs. Well known problem for TTS.

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