nacc
Joined 15 years ago
Joined 15 years ago
Data 1: Index case. There is no evidence that the "index case" is ever found. The earliest patient backtracked to Nov 2019 [1], but there is no report that patient is related to the lab / market.
Data 2: close lab location to seafood market. This alone does not favor one hypothesis to other, since distance is communicative. The virus can start from either location to the other.
Data 3: Bat species. Not sure what aspect of the bat species is related, but one thing to note is the virus sample found in bat is only 96% similar to the virus sample. At 30k genome and an mutation rate of 1bp per two weeks, these samples have at least 20 years worth of evolution time. Unlikely to relate to either lab / seafood market. Some researchers believe there might be intermediate hosts, but there doesn't seem to be evidence what that intermediate host might be.
Data 4. Earlier lab accident. I think the lab accident data is actually not favoring the lab hypothesis. If you think in a Bayesian way, earlier lab leaks are quickly identified and controlled. Given that this time it is not, your belief for lab leak should decrease a bit. Anyway, for the lab data what's important is the likelihood of (the lab, without genetic engineering, get a hold of this virus, and leaked) vs. (an intermediate host). Having worked in Biohazard level 2/3 labs, I think a leak from level 4 lab will be more unlikely compared to intermediate host, but we don't have any good estimate of the two likelihood yet.
So I think people can have strong beliefs about where the virus come from (since everyone's prior is different), but from the data the likelihood really doesn't strongly favor any of the two hypotheses.
[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro...
I would really hope to see a tutorial that have a diverse set of examples and just fmap each example with a light explanation of say, what is a monad in this code and what is not, and because it's a monad we can do this.
Essentially the tutorial can just train a classifier in one's head, and with a nice set of examples maybe the brain can learn a general representation of concepts for the classifier ...
The connectome at the cellular level is massive. I think part of the mouse visual cortical connectome has been mapped out, and the data is on the order of tens of terabytes.
Text might be good for programming because, most of the programming are sequential, text is sequential, and text processing is highly optimized in the brain because language. But in fact, we also use a bit of visual programming (indentation, paragraphs) in text to reflect part of the program structure that are not sequential.
If the program is completely non-sequential, visual tools which reflects the structure of the program are going to be much better than text. For example, if you are designing a electronic circuit, you draw a circuit diagram. Describing a electronic circuit purely in text is not going to be very helpful.
So if someone else is paying for the electricity, build your own gig, otherwise, Amazon is pretty hard to beat.
In north America, what I get is China is controlled by dictators. Life sucks over there because there is no freedom, a lot of corruption, no respect to rules, and is generally a chaotic mess. While in north America, democracy and freedom is wonderful, and everyone has the power to make changes of society, and in the end the government has to care about people to stay in power.
In China, what I get is the US (Canada is usually less discussed) is controlled by a corrupt and impotent government. Life sucks over there because the majority of the people, who actually has the power, believes the doublespeak of the government and are easily manipulated by the wealth. While in China, people make jokes about the official media, and if the government decides to do something people don't like, people simply ignore it and with enough people (there is always enough people in China) doing this, the government has to care about people's opinion to do anything.
I'm a little worried about the situation of both sides now. They seem to go towards what the opposite believes: on one hand in China, the government starts to get better at propaganda and manipulating public opinion; on the other hand in the States ... there is enough happening in the past year.
The tools of a neuroscientist would be laughable in comparison, yet neuroscientists have cracked the auditory code (and you can have an artificial cochlea now), the lower visual system is close to be cracked, we have a pretty good understanding of hippocampus and how space is represented in the brain, and many other accomplishment. These are all results from the laughable tools we have for investigating brain.
Having a full connectome of the brain, and running the brain in a simulator will be a huge step of understanding it. We don't know how to use the data now simply because we don't have the data yet, and therefore no effort is putting on interpreting the data. However the usefulness can be glimpsed from neural structures where the connections are clear: the peripheral system, spinal cord, midbrain, and lower sensory and motor regions in the brain. We understand them far better than regions we don't even know where it connects: claustrum comes into mind.
A simulator of the brain, I imagine, will be similar to the human genome project: nobody will understand the whole thing quickly, but it will hugely prop neuroscience forward, sometimes in ways we cannot imagine now.
So many questions, but the author decided to use it to take portraits in day light ...