m_ke

1. abundance of digital goods

2. automation of computer work

3. commoditization of "intelligence "

4. collapse of frontier labs

humans will be fine, we'll have rapid progress on anything a human could do on a computer but it will take a really long time to trickle into the real economy

You have to understand that Gates had other distractions to deal with

just like there were mistrals, coheres, llamas, etc, there will be new deepseeks and moonshots if those ever flame out (worst case, given out at cost by google, meta, alibaba or etc)

OpenAI and Anthropic are already in a ~200bil hole from previous model iterations and are committing to trillions of additional spending

OpenAI spent more TBPN than kimi spent on training K3

So how exactly is Anthropic and OpenAI ever going to pay back the trillions that they plan on spending?

when you're waiting for network or LLM inference the raw performance doesn't matter at all

1. it's built for async 2. runs everywhere 3. interpreted, making it fast to iterate on 4. decent performance 5. most popular language, llms are decent at writing it

All of these harnesses should support pinning config files and tools to specific models or families of models.

It's really tiring to have to tweak everything with each model release and then watch those changes mess up cheaper models in the process.

GLM 5.2 feels better than Opus and K3 is as good as Fable.

Now I can't wait for someone to distill K3 into a Qwen 3.6 27b or Poolside S 2.1 sized models for a proper fast local Composer 2.5 replacement.

Yeah some real main character energy from Dario as usual.

I'll never get why he thinks China would just sit there and let the US dominate them in AI when all it would take is a few of their boats blockading Taiwan to put a stop to it all.

the argument is that we should all fold and let sam altman burn trillions of dollars on naive scaling and pay monopoly prices for their closed APIs until the models are good enough to be closed off for "safety" reasons so that they can take an even larger cut by competing directly with us

Oh this definitely happens all the time. I was an early employee at Clarifai, which won imagenet a year after alexnet and we were able to stay on the frontier for about 2 years before a bunch of open source models were matching our results. It was always some random PhD research project spinout or some random kid in Boston named Alec Radford.

We had a bunch of things that we never published that ended up being major research findings years later at top conferences.