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Comment · 2 months ago
Comment · 1 year ago
I just wanted to follow up and say I was confidently wrong previously. Thanks for posting, and for the idea.
Comment · 1 year ago
Hey, thanks for this! Prompted me to take a look at the HN guidelines :).
Comment · 1 year ago
Comment · 1 year ago
On the topic of "logical markets", it's not so much how logical a market is and more how much liquidity and available funds exist in the market. It doesn't matter if the market is logical or not, if there is a relative scarcity of funds there is bound to be a contraction.
Comment · 1 year ago
Comment · 1 year ago
You were actually right. I went and checked to see that some (not all) values were double counted. I've updated the graph to reflect this, and added a note. The trend remains identical, despite this change. Thanks for inspiring me to double check.
Comment · 1 year ago
Great points! Obviously this analysis is not unconfounded as the methodology is pretty scrappy.

On point 3, I think both large and small investment groups saw large growth. This is lightly supported by the spike in filings related to SPV as a service companies like Angellist.

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