kozikow

I noticed an interesting phenomenon

Your company uses AI and it gets ahead a lot quicker. However, your competition does so as well.

Many areas of economy are zero sum game - so your $ ends up being the same as previously. However, now with a "tax" paid to AI model providers for being able to stay competetive.

"token factory" is indeed a terrible business model - no one is arguing that.

IMO the whole thing is based on the fact of "we will reach AGI/ASI eventually, and when we do, we will reach escape velocity".

No one knows - you, me, or Dario if this will happen and when.

Exactly, as I recall pre-AI days, 90% of the code was more of a slop of whatever AI writes nowadays

And non-slop parts were maybe some prominent open source projects.

Most bigtech company had an internal joke of "we couldn't ever open source X, not because it can't be done, but it would be too embarrassing"

> Almost every time I use an AI chatbot it eventually turns out it's lying to me. I would not trust them with any of the things you mention.

If you talk to free chatgpt, sure.

But if you launch Opus 5.5 in claude code - for some reason Opus is the smartest for me, even for "general" type of questions, when launched from Claude Code. It has harness/prompts optimized for correctness, while more "customer-grade" products, even when used with top model tend to optimize for latency. And I tend to give "context" - e.g. I have "personal wiki" + skills for lots of those things.

I don't recall i last few weeks where Opus 5.5 in CC made an obvious lie, made an unreasonable assumption, or made a mistake that smart human couldn't make. E.g. if it "failed" it failed in a way that non-genius human could fail in similar way.

At least for me, personal agents have been quite useful. If you integrate them well - shopping, filling random government forms, keeping track of my personal life, optimizing training plan and nutrition, planning vacations, etc. I can do more home repairs or renovations myself with help of chat

So basically you get personal digital assistant - very useful - but not changing my life.

What would I need for real transformation though? Food, house cleaning, commute - "every day chores". Even if we had ASI tomorrow, what could it do to change my life, besides taking away my job? Design good house robot to help me with food preparation I guess... Maybe finally self driving cars launched in my area? Or it will take control, "optimize humanity survival chance" and realize we don't need as many people on this planet.

> It sounds horrible to wade through - like trying to understand someone else's messy code that still produces the correct output.

That's what a lot of us do nowadays, but instead of maths, it's code that looks sensible on the surface, but when you try to understand it's some kind of "alien" logic , names don't really make sense, etc.

Not just maths

In SWE as well - this is what I do most of the day

> saying he has no prioritization skills because everything is urgent.

It's not just prioritization. If project is no urgent, it's often gets stuck in "let's think this through", "have we considered X", "let's gather alignment", especially at e.g. Google

So "it's urgent, because X" is sometimes the only way for something to happen

I've seen some websites now just serve separate md endpoint (for agents to read)

I even ended reading those instead of main "interactive" websites myself

As agents are not great at navigating react either, this will catch on and you will have what you want

Issues will happen AI, or not AI. It's same as "self driving car made an accident"!

I'm not saying blindly trusting auto-fix is not bad. I'm just saying that interpreting singular issue as way to downplay AI-assisted engineering without giving a "denominator" is not honest reporting.

> Father claims Google's AI product fuelled son's delusional spiral

I got into quite a lot of rabbit holes with AI. Most of them were "productive", some of them were not.

80% it will talk you out of delusions or obviously dumb ideas. 20% of the time it will reinforce them

I did lose 30-40kg about 2 years ago on Ozempic.

I don't count calories. I went off Ozempic (now Mounjaro) and I gain weight at about 0.5-1kg a month.

As I am resistance (gym) training, significant % of that ends up being muscle mass rather than fat.

So I end up taking Mounjaro for about 1-2 months every 3-4 months, approximately 33% of the time being "on".

Funnily, I end up with bulk/cut periods without doing them explicitly. This ends up working well for growing muscles.

Notice all people in the story are women. I guess pairing GLP-likes with bodybuilding works quite well for men. As times goes on, I end up needing mounjaro less due to my increased muscle mass.

The H-1B program was already broken by the lottery. This new fee just solidifies the L-1 visa as the real high-skilled pipeline. More L-1 visas are already approved annually than new H-1Bs, and this policy only widens that gap.

In addition to L1, O1 is also often gamed. $100K for H1B is mostly "posturing" at this point, as voters don't know about other options.

Ads inside LLMs (e.g. pay $ to boost your product in LLM recommendation) is going to be a big thing.

My guess is that Google/OpenAI are eyeing each other - whoever does this first.

Why would that work? It's a proven business model. Example: I use LLMs for product research (e.g. which washing machine to buy). Retailer pays if link to their website is included in the results. Don't want to pay? Then redirect the user to buy it on Walmart instead of Amazon.

> And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

There are some nice effects - simulating sword fighting, shooting, etc.

It's just benefits still outweigh the cost. Getting to "good enough" for most people is just not possible in short and midterm.