Recent submissions

Comment · 1 year ago
Thanks for pointing that out, they’re actually tied for second-to-last.

As for % tested, states that don’t mandate the ACT tend to have higher performance in general. They don’t have as compelling of a need for the mandate, and they have many students who’d rather just take the SAT on its own. There is an effect going the other way though - if you don’t mandate the ACT, then students who don’t want to take any standardised testing at all…won’t, and so they won’t depress the average score.

Comment · 1 year ago
The main changes to reading instruction were made around 2013, and math instruction in 2016. I wouldn’t expect a decrease in ACT scores 12 and 9 years later respectively, even when considering that it takes some time for instructors to master the new approach.
Comment · 1 year ago
Mississippi's average ACT scores are tied for last (edit: tied for second to last). I’m sure some of their educational outcomes are improving, but the demographic-adjusted stats from elementary school students are misleading. Holding kids back for poor performance can really pump their numbers inadvertently. Even if that’s not a very prevalent practice, performance in high school is more important and far more predictive of life outcomes.

You know what’s crazier? Mississippi’s average ACT was higher before some of their education policy improvements.

Comment · 1 year ago
The market ultimately determines the discount, not the company. In a competitive market, some of the gains from Apple’s change will accrue to the consumer, and some will accrue to the developer. What % goes to whom depends on demand elasticity.

Even if a particular list price doesn’t change, I’d expect more frequent and deeper sales.

In a less competitive market for a good or service (due to lack of antitrust enforcement) there should still be discounts, in proportion to the residual competitiveness. E.g. the mobile game market is very competitive, so I’d expect more discounts vs. the video entertainment market where there has been a lot of aggregation.

Comment · 1 year ago
For Plus users the limits are:

o3-mini-high: 50 messages per week (just like o1, but it seems like these are non-shared limits, so you can have 50 messages per week with o1, run out, and still have 50 messages with o3-mini-high to use)

o3-mini: 150 messages per day

Source for the latter is their press release. They were more vague about o3-mini-high, but people have already tested its limits just by using it, and got the pop-up for 25 messages left after sending 25 messages.

It's nice not to worry about running out of o1 messages now and have a faster model that's mostly as good (potentially better in some areas?). OpenAI really needs to release a middle tier for 30 to $40 though that has the same models as Pro but without infinite usage. I hate not having the smartest model and I don't want to pay $200; there's probably a middle ground where they can make as much or more money from me on a subscription tier that gives limited access to o1-pro.

Comment · 1 year ago
I don’t think early AGI will break out of its box in that way. It may not have enough innate motivation to do so.

The first “break out” AGI will likely be released into the wild on purpose by a programmer who equates AGI with humans ideologically.

Comment · 1 year ago
If the first AGI is a very uneconomical system with human intelligence but knowledge of literally everything and the capability to work 24/7, then it is not human equivalent.

It will have human intelligence, superhuman knowledge, superhuman stamina, and complete devotion to the task at hand.

We really need to start building those nuclear power plants. Many of them.

Comment · 1 year ago
AGI will commoditize the skills of the owning class. To some extent it will also commoditize entire classes of productive capital that previously required well-run corporations to operate. Solve for the equilibrium.
Comment · 1 year ago
You have so much time to figure things out. The average person in this thread is probably 1.5-2x your age. I wouldn’t stress too much. AI is an amazing tool. Just use it to make hay while the sun shines, and if it puts you out of work and automates away all other alternatives, then you’ll be witnessing the greatest economic shift in human history. Productivity will become easier than ever, before it becomes automatic and boundless. I’m not cynical enough to believe the average person won’t benefit, much less educated people in STEM like you.

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