jcfrei

I kind of expected this to happen: Coding will become an "artisanal craft" - much like woodworking for example. Sure for most of your furniture you can just go to ikea but every now and then you might get joy from making something with your own hands.

Of course the big spenders on Google with the multi-million dollars advertising budgets won't just change their spending behaviour over night. That takes time - like anything in big corporations.

I don't think US investors are the target here. They can already make bets on the SP500 in a number of ways: ETFs, futures, options etc. - unless you wanna make a highly leveraged bet which traditional broker margin requirements will prevent. The tradfi venues are probably even a bit cheaper (though we are talking about a few bps difference).

I've looked at the xyz:SP500 contract on hyperliquid and it's funding rate seems to be negative most of the time. Currently the annualized rate is around -0 to -2%, so if you hold a long position over a year you will roughly earn 1% on top (negative funding rate means short positions pay funding to long positions). This makes sense because the no-arbitrage principle requires this to be roughly in line with holding an actual SP500 basket and receiving dividends. And you don't pay interest on open positions, you are just holding a derivative and need to meet margin obligations - but you can leverage as much as you are comfortable with.

this won't really matter much because even if tokenization of stocks is banned you can just create perpetual futures that settle on the price of the real stock. so if you are a crypto only investor (due to your country preventing open capital markets or other restrictions) you will put your money there and then some intermediaries with access to both tradfi markets with actual stock and access to the crypto perpetual futures markets will provide the liquidity and keep prices in sync.

Meta AI has been accessible inside Whatsapp for a long time. Doesn't seem to have a massively disrupted chatgpt usage. And I have a hunch people want to keep this separated - not use whatsapp for messaging friends and asking AI.

OpenAI has the largest user base on mobile as far as I'm aware. To a lot of standard users AI is still just ChatGPT. They'll be fine as long as they can effectively monetize their free users (same what facebook will soon try with Muse). The only advantage facebook has is that they already have a fully working ad marketplace ready with all major advertisers set up - OpenAI still needs to scale that up.

to use a GBU-28 or similar you need to establish air superiority first

believe it or not but legislation can change pretty quickly when shit actually hits the fan

Not trying to be dismissive here but a lawyer will always edit your proposal. I do think lawyers will persist but not as many. And they will work very differently, much like we already use claude / codex to code - a big part of the contract probably won't be read by the lawyer.