j_shi

Funcom’s Dreamfall, one of my favorite games of all time, has something to say about where this could go!

Realized there's probably pref on Databricks too, which would further lower the value of its common. On the other hand, there could have been a markdown from the 38B since August '21

Actually seems Databricks got a great deal for Mosaic. Real qustion is why Mosaic took it v. hold out or do another round

Rough math plugging in public #s and comments here:

- All stock deal at Aug 2021 val of 38B (1B ARR)

- Assume rev doubled to 2B (which may even be aggressive)

- SAAS multiples are down 6x since Aug 2021

- 38B x 2 / 6 = $12.7B

- 12.7B / 38B * 1.3B = 434M = effective price

- Assume 100M to pref stock

--> Comes out to 334M, with a chunk of that (1/3? 1/4?) potentially subject to earn out

Disagree there are sacred timeless skills we ought to protect; tech has and will continue to reduce our need to spend mental bandwidth on skills

Similar offline risk goes for all tech: navigation, generating energy, finding food & water.

And as others have noted, like other personal tools, ai will become more portable and efficient (see progress on self hosted, minimal, efficiently trained models like Vicuna that are 92% parity with OpenAI fancy model)

Self-hosted + self-trained LLMs are probably the future for enterprise.

While consumers are happy to get their data mined to avoid paying, businesses are the opposite: willing to pay a lot to avoid feeding data to MSFT/GOOG/META.

They may give assurances on data protection (even here GitHub copilot TOS has sketchy language around saving down derived data), but can’t get around fundamental problem that their products need user interactions to work well.

So it seems with BigTechLLM there’s inherent tension between product competitiveness and data privacy, which makes them incompatible with enterprise.

Biz ideas along these lines: - Help enterprises set up, train, maintain own customized LLMs - Security, compliance, monitoring tools - Help AI startups get compliant with enterprise security - Fine tuning service

Bingo and similar deal with Facebook. The best way to get leverage and power with FBGOOG is for advertisers to cooperate instead of compete. We are trying to do this with ecomm advertisers right now (by getting advertisers to coordinate instead of bid against each other) but goes beyond any particular ad vertical

You mean his American wife whose parents were refugees from Vietnam? Source: light googling

Wait for enough confirmations where the payment becomes unlikely to reverse, which of course takes time and that's the more practical blocker for regular shops to accept Bitcoin.

Could also go strategic exit or PE route, though former tricky to put together and latter tough on valuation

This is the bull case for We that justifies a stratospheric valuation: it is the extranational life infra and connection market maker for the otherwise hyperalienated worker of tomorrow -- where corporations have surpassed "legacy" social and political units of organization and identity.

Where the valuation came down to earth was when public investors evaluated We as an incrementally better office rental company, and didn't buy the idea of We as creating and monetizing a religion.

ps can’t click last button on iphone se via iOS hn app

So both forks worth more 6mo in than they were immediately after split; sounds like actually supports idea forking for a good reason can be value accretive..