hcmacro

Nope, the Fed cares about PCE because that’s the inflation measure it targets over time. Consequently, core PCE and core PCE services ex-housing.

CPI and PPI matter for policy setting to the extent that their components feed into PCE. But Core CPI Services-XH and Core PCE Serviced-XH have little overlap in their components. The Fed is concerned about the latter falling because real rates, in the model that the Fed uses, get tighter the longer rates remain on hold. Just look at the last quarterly SEP—it forecasts PCE not CPI.

CPI ain't PCE my guy. Other than suggesting a firm January print, this print has not really changed forecasts for core PCE--the Fed's preferred target---to hit 2% yoy by May.

Rather than repeat the "markets remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent refrain," I will give you a less common reason for caution...

If you're right, you'll likely be tempted to short again.

quite possibly one of the dumbest things you can do, even if you end up being right at some point.

same same

You should look up Wynne Godley and Sectoral Balances.

I'd say Japan (China followed Singapore in development).

So Stripe going to get marked down again? Tough to IPO this far below your valuation high water mark, at least judging from its closest comp.

And not too many years later, Northern Europe went to war with the Sun King. Longevity regression is equally likely if that happens again.