goalonetwo

yes, the long tail of difficult event is exponentially more difficult to handle. That's why I said above that people "feel" it is ready but it is nowhere to be even close to ready.

The average crash rate for human is one every 500k miles.

If you drove with a very very bad driver that crashes every 50k miles (average is every 500k miles), you would have exactly the same feeling and you would also be tempted to take a nap.

100 Miles literally don't matter. Even 1000. On average accidents happens every 500k miles.

Are you ready to have your tesla drive FSD with you sleeping in it for 500k? You are letting your feeling dictate that FSD is ready. The math is more complicated.

100% and even if they might not "replace" a senior or staff SWE, they can make their job significantly easier which means that instead of requiring 5 Senior or Staff you will only need two.

LLM WILL change the job market dynamics in the coming years. Engineers have been vastly overpaid over the last 10 years. There is no reason to not see a reversal to the mean here. Getting a 500k offer from a FAANG because you studied leetcode for a couple weeks is not going to fly anymore.

This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and FSD is nowhere even close to do that.

Going from 99.9% to 99.99999% is what makes a system truly driverless and where most of the work is. Waymo is way way ahead of FSD for this.

I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events.

You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too many accidents and injuries in the long run. And the work to go from 99.9% to 99.9999% is 1000x more complicated.

Weird jumping to conclusion How do we know this is to seek revenge, and not just a way for the other elephant to attempt to get some water as well?

exactly this. Working with a couple ex-google and ex-facebook. Without failing every meeting we hear at least once "At Google/Facebook we used to ..." for something that is completely not applicable here.

Ah, another one of those infamous 2018 blog posts on "why I quit Google".

And those blog posts absolutely always start by telling you that the engineers at Google are the smartest in the world. Oh boy are those people indoctrinated.

Large companies fail in spectacular ways all the time. Google is super successful because they tapped into the biggest cash cow of all times. Not because the employees are somehow very capable and above any oversight.

Good luck proving that your data was not deleted.

GDPR and CCPA etc made it easy to send a request for deletion that will most probably be a frontend gimmick. How much effort are they really going to put into going back in their backups and deleting all your entries? I'm pretty sure it must be the lowest roadmap priorities.

Exactly this. Especially for a currently failing company that got an incentive to NOT delete your data (because that's the only value they still have).

common advice is to never connect your smart TV to the network. Only use the HDMI inputs.