gfodor

You can just run more tests to get increased statistical power.

Good feedback, thanks! I am using Polar for license keys, that's just how it works.

Saying we don’t understand why LLMs are intelligent is both true and completely unrelated to religion. You inserted the word “spirit” so perhaps you are the one conflating the two.

Correct, my opinions have nothing to do with financials. If I was around for the discovery of fire I wouldn’t be wondering about the impact on the bottom line.

If Acetaminophen started exhibiting signs of human level intelligence I would have a similar perspective

It’s not a religious angle, we literally don’t know how or why these models work.

Yes we know how to grow them, but we don’t know what is actually going on inside of them. This is why Anthropic’s CEO wrote the post he did about the need for massive investment in interpretability.

It should rattle you that deep learning has these emergent capabilities. I don’t see any reason to think we will see another winter.

Yep, this time it’s different.

I’m saying that seeing dubious economics is blinding people from accepting what’s actually going on with neural networks, and it leads to them having a profoundly miscalibrated mental model. This is not like analyzing a typical tech cycle. We are dealing with something here that we don’t really understand and transcends basic models like “it’s just a really good tool.”

Yeah, I know. It’s weird to admit this kind of obvious error in public though, speaks to a very big epistemological hole on your part.