gcuth
Joined 6 years ago
Karma
144
Submissions
8
Member since
Sep 10
[ my public key: https://keybase.io/gcuth; my proof: https://keybase.io/gcuth/sigs/3_lwHRtSkEjk2eW2DahbyLCrJAp27fZXxPYDkaf5o9I ]
View on Hacker NewsRecent submissions
Comment · 3 years ago
I’m gonna guess “finding”.
Comment · 3 years ago
I eventually switched to asking about other texts, which made it extra obvious that this is the result of filtering prevent potentially copyrighted material: https://chat.openai.com/share/72a9275c-35c6-414d-8c03-37cbf3...
Comment · 3 years ago
Comment · 5 years ago
You're right; that's a better description, and I was wrong to suggest that he 'acknowledged the truth' in any strong way.
I think my feeling here is in the general vein of Alex Tabarrok's "a bet is a tax on bullshit" or Brian Caplan's "bettor's oath". I'm just happy that he's paying up and not trying to weasel out of the bet. Losing can be painful --- I'm sure losing $10,000 like this stings a lot --- and I want to be sympathetic to that reality: if he can't be magnanimous in this moment, he should at least get some kudos for the fact that he seems to have shut his mouth.
Comment · 5 years ago
Kusenko should get a lot of credit here: he bet on his beliefs, agreed to terms, and then acknowledged the truth and paid up when he was wrong.
Comment · 5 years ago
For folks who want to try the kind of forecasting being discussed here, Metaculus is a pretty great community: https://www.metaculus.com/
Their FAQ has a great explanation of how they 'score' user forecasts --- including a summary of Brier scores for binary yes/no questions, and the log score used for both binary and continuous questions: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#howscore
Comment · 6 years ago
I have 'lighght' as a tattoo on my ribs. No regrets.