garymarcus
Joined 4 years ago
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124
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37
Member since
Mar 10
Recent submissions
Comment · 11 months ago
Comment · 1 year ago
If you think AI is “smart” or “PhD level” or that it “has an IQ of 120”, take five minutes to read my latest newsletter (link below), as I challenge ChatGPT to the incredibly demanding task of drawing a map of major port cities with above average income.
The results aren’t pretty. 0/5, no two maps alike.
“Smart” means understanding abstract concepts and combining them well, not just retrieving and analogizing in shoddy ways.
No way could a system this is wonky actually get a PhD in geography. Or economics. Or much of anything else.
Comment · 1 year ago
For those wanting some background, rather than just wanting to vent:
1. Here is evaluation of my recent predictions: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025...
2. Here is annotated evaluation, slightly dated, considering almost line by line, of the original Deep Learning is Hitting a Wall paper: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-years-later-deep-learn...
Ask yourself how much has really changed in the intervening year?
Comment · 1 year ago
exactly. and the counterarguments boil down to “na na” and hope.
Comment · 1 year ago
god these arguments are empty, personal and without any substance whatsoever
Comment · 1 year ago
Show me the goalposts I have moved, with actual quotes to prove it. nobody ever has when I have asked.
Aso consider eg the bets I have made with Miles Brundage (and offered to Musk(, with money where I have backed up my views.
good summary of predictions i made - mostly correct – is here: https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/25-ai-predictions...
Comment · 1 year ago
you obviously never actually read the paper; you should.
Comment · 1 year ago
because i correctly foresaw quite a lot. you should actually read the paper.
Comment · 1 year ago
100% - there has not been any solid theoretical argument whatsoever (beyond some confusions about scaling that we can now see were incorrect).
Comment · 2 years ago
the common thread is rationality and an aversion to disinformation.
Comment · 2 years ago
easier said than done, in the general case. the work I describe in the essay does it in a narrow case, but see also https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/getting-gpt-to-work-with-e...
Deep analysis by a leading skeptic.