garspin

Consciousness & souls are defined by feelings.

Feelings need chemicals - dopamine, seratonin, oxytocin.

Our meat substrate has these, silcon doesn't.

While mirrors, TVs, Tiktoks, LLMs can evoke emotions in us, that's not sufficent to assign feelings, consciousness or souls to that substrate.

Making $$$ & keeping them are 2 different skills.

He's demonstrated the former 16B times, now he's demonstrating the latter.

The big downside risk I see for Nvidia is a garage startup inventing a more efficient AI algo.... that only needs 20W to run.

1) Making money & keeping money are 2 different skillsets. You've made some $$$, now learn how to keep it.

2) Time is far more valuable than money. If you can take life-changing $$$ off the table in exchange for time, do so. The 2nd $1M buys you a tiny proportion of the benefits that the first $1M did.

3) You have a v. high risk concentrated portfolio that is aligned with your income. That's massive risk.

4) Taking it now buys you time & optionality. Leaving some still buys you blue sky. Best of both worlds.

I doubt it. Brains run at only a few operations per second.... GPUS at TFLOPS. There just isn't enough bandwidth.

My brain only needs to get mugged in a dark alley by a guy in a hoodie once to learn something.

> the U.S.'s vaunted system of checks and balances doesn't work and a similar president could be elected at any time

Precisely. The world has lost faith in both the US voters and its' checks & balances.

Buffet said he is prepared to lose $Bs, but not an ounce of trust - in 100 days the US has lost both.

Some would say further than 4 yrs. Enough of the voters and Congress have demonstrated that they are tolerant of this mode of leadership behaviour - internationally trust has disappeared for a generation.

Things that have changed recently that may affect the trend -

faith in the stability of US govt

declining need for petro dollars

increase in US debt as %age of GDP

(IANA Economist)

Speaking as an non-american reading local & global news sources....

...does Trump not understand 2nd round effects ?

From afar he seems to be intent on Making America Great for Billionaires at the expense of any country less powerful than the US.

> and then you found that it offered marginal-but-not-amazing improvement over the previous version.

Then call it GPT 4.1 and allow version space for the next iteration.

I think the label V4.5 is giving the impression of more than marginal improvements.

I use minbrowser.org/ Some sites disallow it... min suggests changing the user-agent setting to something like - Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:109.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/121.0

An alternative explaination...

Deepseek is a side project for a hedge fund.

Shorting NVIDIA & releasing everything including the source would have a high probability of being hugely profitable, with almost zero downside if it went unnoticed.