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Comment · 5 years ago
Comment · 6 years ago
Agree.

Further corollary: more workers will be concentrated around 2nd-tier hubs where their wages will be lower than 1st-tier, but higher that median wages. 2nd-tier median wages will then drive up housing prices which will rinse & repeat COL increase trends seen in the Bay Area.

Hopefully these other hubs will have better development zoning & housing policies than San Francisco / Bay Area.

Comment · 6 years ago
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Comment · 6 years ago
Super helpful - thank you! IIS / containerized .NET apps that may be optimized in Azure is compelling.
Comment · 6 years ago
Exciting is also a confusing property for me.

AWS has offered a superset of services beyond what I or colleagues have ever been able to apply.

Comment · 6 years ago
Makes sense that business incentives inform decision making, but how do you explain the difference in Twitter's content policy? They also, presumably, measure their business via MAU & DAU.

Sometimes I think its as simple as humans making decisions. And Zuckerberg is making a spineless decision (by way of inertia).

Comment · 6 years ago
Initially I thought of those numbers (36m in the US) as totally unrealistic. But then comparing to seasonal influenza case counts, they seem to be within that order of magnitude (39m-56m cases): https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

would that be implausible? am I misunderstanding or comparing the wrong metrics?

I'm actually curious to see the time interval of when the first true COVID-19 case appeared plotted over first true 2019-2020 influenza cases. If along the same timeline, you'd figure that social distancing would have affected the R0 of both.

Assuming that SARS-CoV-2 is truly more (or comparably) contagious, 36M could be plausible.

To be clear: I am not equivalating COVID-19 fatality rate w/ the flu, or suggesting it is "innocuous" as the flu is.

Comment · 6 years ago
Re. Money in a bank account not contributing to scarcity: I think that logic checks out when you observe money as a resource in isolation.

If you think of Money as a proxy for "captured value," then one way to look at it is how much "captured value" is "captured opportunity for wealth creation," which has a certain distribution % chance across the entire population.

In that sense, total aggregate money at any point in time can be viewed as zero-sum.

Comment · 6 years ago
Interesting to present it as a binary tradeoff.

I want to win, but I want to make sure that the thesis has some modeling diligence =)

Comment · 6 years ago
Strongly agree with this. Dates serve a critical goalpost in technical planning, yet they should be viewed as flexible (having a reasonable margin of error) and informed by tight & trust-driven feedback loops. I subscribe to Gantt charts as a planning tool, not a bible. Use it to empower development teams to plan and track execution, but don't use it for 0-margin accounting.

One anti-pattern in engineering management is shielding engineers entirely from timeline estimates. A CEO with limited runway, reporting to the Board, doesn't have such a luxury of infinitely elastic time.

Edit:

Note: dates should never be prioritized over value. If you're hitting dates and not delivering value then it won't do good for anyone. Product value should always be the function to optimize for, but rarely is it entirely independent of time.

Comment · 6 years ago
not an argument, an attempt to synthesize this event into a parable. Failed attempt at that ;)
Comment · 6 years ago
To clarify my thinking: defunding Govt' pandemic preparedness became a forcing function for the individually wealthy to deploy private capital with much higher $$$ cost.

Point taken that its a stretch of the imagination.

Comment · 6 years ago
What's remarkable is how this is a clear case study of the amount of wealth destroyed _by gutting government_

If I were to try to be pithy: Capitalism destroyed by the incompetency of libertarian ideals.

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