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this is a great and wonderful contribution. best thing i have read on this.

Woah. Where?

who is going to read this post and think: "i am the target audience for this. i had better get working on my submission to the webmcp challenge."

3d modeling, collaborative writing, crossword builder?? huh?

i doubt it. someday harnesses get complex enough that you start asking models to interpret and modify them.

the pattern of layering of deterministic, probabilistic, deterministic, probabilistic. it's a strange pattern but it seems somehow natural.

stripe buys openrouter. nvidia buys hugging face. everyone on the hunt for the app that will function as hub/broker/search/marketplace for models.

yes, these feeble attempts to dismiss it are cope. yes, there are very smart people who are deeply in denial.

i do not agree with you that the failure mode is disaster. i suspect it is just more of the same dull march of the commoditization of the complement, labor.

maybe ai will close the loop and elasticity of substitution will climb above 1 in its own supply chain. maybe something breaks dramatically that way.

i tend to assume the desire for drama is itself cope. i suspect many of the flaccid dismissals and skepticisms here are coming from a similar assumption. they see that the dramatic version never happens, and so they conclude that anyone who is being dramatic (whether in the direction of hype or fear) is poorly calibrated. and they are on average right, so they learn to dismiss the drama. the muscle to dismiss the drama becomes very strong. you have to remember this: that they are right in their dismissal, even if the actual arguments they use to dismiss are essentially braindead. they are right to dismiss, because the dramatic possibility they are dismissing is at base the end of the world, by apocalypse or utopia. of course they are right. the end of the world is cope. drama is cope. but they are wrong because they underestimate the extent to which the predictability of their dismissal — the predictability of their complacency — makes them vulnerable to the diffuse, chronic, gradual forms of the machine's encroachment into our souls.

so i do not think we need your fancy theory for explaining why people are denying what is happening (and what has been happening, on more or less the same exponential, for hundreds of years). people do not need a reason to be complacent. people are by default complacent and by default correct in their complacency. but so is an ant.

so short them. if you think that the demand for skilled-labor-substitutive capital is saturable in the medium term or that improvements at the model level eat those at the hardware/cuda level or that nvidia just has the timing wrong, short them.

funny how we have ~10x the usual volume of hn front page commenters, here, for the most part eagerly saying that this article made them think and feel approximately nothing.

tl;dr: author is an anti-aipac zionist who tends to fixate on piker.